Sinema reelection hopes could hang on stalled high-stakes negotiations

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is closing out 2023 working to secure a deal in the bipartisan border security negotiations, which, if successful, could boost her reelection prospects in a race she has yet to enter.

Sinema has been heavily involved in the talks, which are being led by Sens. James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) and have centered largely on changes to federal asylum policy and how the Biden administration uses the humanitarian parole authority.

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There have also been reports that the White House has offered to establish a new border expulsion law and increase mandatory detention rates as part of the negotiations, though no one from the Senate working group or the Biden administration has confirmed as much publicly.

All involved in the negotiations have said this is some of the most difficult legislative work they’ve ever done. For Sinema, the stakes of reaching a deal could involve her political future, a topic she has refused to discuss publicly.

“This is definitely the hardest thing we’ve done,” Sinema said in an interview, referring to how complicated border law is. “My state cannot afford Congress to ignore this anymore, or to fall back into their partisan comfort zones of just attacking each other.”

Sinema has yet to launch her 2024 reelection campaign despite continuing to fundraise. The Democrat-turned-independent is remaining mum on her plans as a potential three-way race takes shape.

Despite her enormous influence as one of the most coveted swing votes in a closely split Senate, Sinema’s low approval rating in Arizona and public breakup with the Democratic Party have made her the most vulnerable incumbent up for reelection in the 2024 election cycle.

She and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) became foes within the party for their refusal to support eliminating the 60-vote filibuster threshold as the rest of the Senate Democratic Conference got on board, facing an intense, very public pressure campaign to shift their stance on the issue as Biden’s agenda stalled. Sinema, in particular, was turned into a boogeyman among Democrats for her refusal to defend her position publicly as frequently as Manchin, who maintains a rigorous press schedule.

Should she decide to seek a second term, Sinema’s race will put her theory that most voters have also spurned their party identity to the test. It is not clear yet, though, if she can build enough of a centrist coalition to win statewide.

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Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who emerged as a prominent Sinema critic as she began bucking her party under President Joe Biden, launched a bid to unseat her in January. Gallego is expected to easily win the Democratic nomination with Sinema not running in the party’s primary.

Republican Kari Lake, the party’s 2022 gubernatorial candidate who still refuses to concede her loss to Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ), launched her bid for the GOP nomination in October. She has met with NRSC leadership despite her controversial reputation, as Republicans try to coalesce around a single candidate in hopes of securing a victory in a complicated potential three-way race.