How Trump and Biden could spell bad news for their parties in crucial races

Governors historically hold one of the few offices that aren’t affected by the nationalization of politics, but a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden could sweep away any chances of that remaining in 2024.

Eleven governor seats are up for reelection in 2024, and each day, Trump and Biden are getting closer to becoming the nominees for their respective parties. With Trump’s strong coalition of hard-line conservatives on the fringe of the Republican Party and Biden’s growing unpopularity among establishment and some progressive Democrats, these 11 governor contests could be shaped by the polarized politics of the presidential election.

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The outcome of a gubernatorial election comes down to how a governor will best serve the state’s voters in their everyday lives, typically weighing taxes, medical care, education, and cultural matters such as abortion, LGBT rights, and public safety. For years, several states’ elected governors did not match the party that won the White House, separating their interests about how they want their state to operate and what they would like to see from the president.

However, a Trump-Biden rematch could continue to shrink the share of split-ticket voters even more in 2024.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Trump narrowly won in 2020, but Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) won the gubernatorial race. Cooper’s success was part of a string of state-level wins for Democrats after Barack Obama won there in 2008. But those victories haven’t been matched by national contests, as Democrats have lost three subsequent presidential elections and Senate contests in the Tar Heel State since.

Eyes will be on North Carolina’s race next year, as Cooper is term-limited and his retirement sets up a competitive race for the open governor seat, and the Democrats’ hold on the governor’s mansion for the last 30 years has been a source of hope.

With Cooper out, Democrats are looking to state Attorney General Josh Stein to take the helm. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is the Republican choice for governor and is supported by Trump, and he has a track record on policy that aligns with the hard-line conservative agenda the former president champions.

Next year’s gubernatorial contest could be a referendum on Trump’s style or a warning that Biden has depressed Democratic energy.

Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by roughly 1.5 points, and 2024 is already shaping up to be a fierce fight between the two parties as they campaign heavily in the state. Major hot-button matters such as abortion and the economy are likely to be at the top of voters’ minds, but history has shown there can be a chance for ticket-splitters: Cooper won by 4.5 points in 2020, even though Trump won the state.

New Hampshire

On the other side, Biden swept New Hampshire, but Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) held on to his seat in 2020. Biden and the Democratic National Committee have frustrated the Granite State by stripping it of its prized position as the first primary contest, and Republicans are looking to exploit that anger.

But with Sununu not running again, national Democrats see a prime opportunity to turn the governor’s mansion blue. Though they failed numerous times to unseat Sununu, Democrats now have a chance to flip the purple state — if the party’s establishment can rally around one candidate. Support is split between Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

The Republicans in the New Hampshire race are former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate President Chuck Morse. Like several Republicans in 2022, Morse lost to his Trump-backed opponent, Don Bolduc, in the midterm primary election. Bolduc lost to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH), the outcome among several other Trump-endorsed candidates who cost the GOP its anticipated red wave.

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With Trump in the political arena and polling indicating he is the likely GOP nominee for 2024, it could greatly polarize the New Hampshire Republican primary, as well as bring voters to the same place they were in 2022.

Some states that are solidly Republican may face the consequences of increased polarization. In Utah, Gov. Spencer Cox (R-UT), who presents himself as a sensible conservative, has drawn a hard-line conservative primary challenger with ties to Trump: Utah state Rep. Phil Lyman. Though a split among the Republican Party in the primary could spell danger in the general election, Cox continues to carry consistent support among Utah voters, earning a 63% approval rating as of July.