RFK Jr.’s 2024 strategy hearkens back to independent Ross Perot’s historic 1992 bid

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s strategy to gain ballot access as an independent presidential candidate in every state ahead of the 2024 election is proving to be similar to that of Ross Perot, the independent candidate who, in 1992, received more votes than any nonmajor party candidate in U.S. history.

During a press conference in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Wednesday, Kennedy told attendees his campaign had collected “more than double the signatures we needed” to qualify for the ballot, a tactic that Perot’s own campaign used during his bids for the Oval Office, according to Russell Verney, who was Perot’s campaign manager in 1996.

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According to Verney, who was also a top adviser to Perot’s 1992 presidential campaign, Perot’s campaign would aim to gather double the number of signatures needed in any given state to secure access to the ballot. In 1992, Perot garnered 19% of the popular vote with 19,742,267 votes.

The former campaign manager echoed Kennedy’s claims that states used heightened scrutiny over validating each signature. He explained to the Washington Examiner that many signatures would ultimately be “thrown out” for a variety of reasons, including “discrepancies between the signatures on petitions and the verification of them.”

This, among other things, makes gaining ballot access in every state “a very daunting task.” However, Verney isn’t convinced that Kennedy is someone who could achieve Perot-like success.

“You can’t just come out of the blue and say, ‘I want to run,'” he said. He emphasized the importance of being somewhat established nationwide in a way that can be translated into presidential support. “Mr. Kennedy, other than having a famous name, has never done any of that.”

The former Perot campaign manager said Kennedy’s anti-vaccine stance is “the closest thing he’s come to creating a reputation.”

“But from what I understand, his family wouldn’t even vote for him,” he added, referencing Kennedy’s siblings’ denunciation of his candidacy.

Perot’s unique notoriety and support grew out of his strategic media use, his own personal fortune, and his appeal to fiscal conservatives, social moderates, and critics of deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Another obstacle faced by Kennedy that could block him from seeing a Perot-level success is a lack of financial resources that the late presidential candidate had. Perot was a billionaire and wielded his money to assist his presidential bids.

Perot reportedly spent $65 million of his personal fortune on his campaign in 1992. Kennedy, however, is only reported to be worth $15 million, despite his famous family.

“Perot garnered 19% of the vote as an independent candidate in 1992 due in part to his own personal fortune (which helped with ballot access), which allowed him to run prime-time specials on the budget deficit that captured the nation’s attention and interest,” University of South Carolina political scientist David Darmofal said.

At the time, Perot was one of the first to attempt to traverse a changing media landscape in order to deliver his pitch directly to voters.

It was on television that Perot first signaled his openness to run for the executive office. During Larry King Live on Feb. 20, 1992, he told the host, “If I can get on the ballot in all 50 states, I’ll do it.”

When Perot reflected on the success of his movement, he pointed to a widespread sentiment of voter discontent in the nation.

His unusual tactic of crafting his infomercials struck a chord with the public, who weren’t accustomed to seeing a politician reach out in such a way. In his half-hour slot focused on balancing the U.S. budget, Perot spoke at length to the public, using many charts to demonstrate his points.

Voters recalled being drawn in by the candidate, who reached them through a new method and came off as relatable and matter-of-fact. His concern for topics that voters felt had otherwise gone overlooked and his distinctive use of visual aids helped to endear him to millions.

When it comes to Kennedy, however, Verney believes the independent candidate will be sidelined “by the whole process before he gets any traction,” and while Kennedy might have the goal of being a “disrupter,” Verney doesn’t believe he can be one.

The public has shown interest in third-party and independent candidates time and time again, he noted. But often, once they get to the ballot box, they opt to choose between the two major parties, feeling compelled to choose a lesser of two evils.

“Even if some people like, say, Mr. Kennedy’s viewpoint on [vaccines] and they want to vote for him, when it comes to Election Day, they’re going to conclude that, well, he just doesn’t have a chance of winning,” he predicted.

However, Kennedy’s campaign manager Stefanie Spear believes he has the type of widely palatable message that could resonate far and wide and last all the way through the election. Chief among Kennedy’s campaign topics is “healing the divide,” Spear said.

“Never since the Civil War has our country been so divided, tearing families, our long-term friendships apart,” she explained in an interview with the Washington Examiner.

While Verney associated Kennedy primarily with his anti-vaccination sentiment, this wasn’t mentioned by Spear. Instead, she pointed to Kennedy’s “nature of wanting to show compassion for people.”

“He’s the only one talking about how he wants to make sure that the American dream is alive for our younger generations,” she added. “That’s really resonating. I think that’s why he’s polling and leading Trump and Biden nationally in young voters under 34.”

In a seven-way race that included President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Kennedy polled at 10% compared to Biden’s 34% and Trump’s 37%, according to a recent national poll of 1,000 registered voters released by Suffolk University/USA Today.

While those vying for the Republican and Democratic nominations have stuck to campaigning in the traditional early primary states, Kennedy has chosen instead to stake his bid on Utah, an effort that has seen some success for the independent candidate after it became the first state in which Kennedy qualified for ballot access in 2024 on Wednesday.

As to why the state was the chosen place to begin, Kennedy’s campaign had a simple answer.

“Running an independent campaign comes with the difficult task of getting on each state’s ballot. We broke down our states into four different tiers,” Spear said. The first tier, which Utah is in, allows for the earliest petitioning, and “you didn’t need any electors and didn’t need to have your [vice president].”

But there are other potential strategic benefits to beginning Kennedy’s effort in Utah.

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Political scientist Josh Putnam, author of FrontloadingHQ, pointed to former independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin, who ran for the position in 2016 against Hillary Clinton and Trump. While he didn’t see success nationally, he did garner a significant share of Utah, his home state’s votes, with 21%.

Seeing McMullin’s traction in the state, he said Kennedy’s campaign might “potentially see an opening for another option.”