The first Republican voters will decide on their preferred candidate for the 2024 presidential nomination during the Iowa caucuses on Monday.
Much is at stake as former President Donald Trump attempts to beat back Gov. Ron DeSantis‘s (R-FL) ground game in the Hawkeye State and the rising campaign of former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
A resounding win from Trump could prompt DeSantis to drop out and even dampen some momentum Haley has been riding the past two months.
Here’s what to know about the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses.
What happens on caucus night?
Registered Iowa Republicans ages 18 and up will gather at the roughly 1,700 precincts across the state at 7 p.m. local time, 8 p.m. Eastern time. State law allows anyone who is 17 but will be 18 by Nov. 5, 2024, to participate in the caucuses. Iowans can also register as Republicans on caucus night if they want to participate.
Caucuses are run by the state party, unlike primaries, which are run by the state government and function similarly to Election Day since voting is done at a polling place.
During the closed-door caucuses, Republicans will hear from fellow Iowans who will give a short speech on why voters should select their candidate for president by secret ballot. Remote and mail-in voting are not allowed during the caucuses.
It may take caucusgoers at each precinct anywhere from one hour to 90 minutes, or even longer in some cases, to report results to the state party. Iowa’s 40 Republican National Convention delegates will then be proportionally awarded to candidates when results are released.
After a disastrously messy 2020 caucus night, Iowa Democrats demoted the state in their 2024 primary schedule. Democrats will still gather to discuss party business on Monday, but they will decide on their nominee by a mail-in system and won’t release the results until March 5, the same day as Super Tuesday.
Who are the main candidates to watch?
Conventional wisdom says there are three tickets or three top candidates who will emerge out of Iowa heading into the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary.
Trump has led all of his rivals in national and Iowa polling, and many Beltway pundits expect Trump to win on Monday.
But DeSantis is banking on his tour of all 99 counties in Iowa along with the endorsement of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) and influential evangelical Bob Vander Plaats helping him snatch victory away from Trump or finish closely behind him in second place.
Haley, however, is trying to tamp down high expectations in Iowa, but if she were to come in second place, it could be the moment that DeSantis’s presidential ambitions are extinguished. The two candidates have fiercely battled to become the sole viable challenger to Trump.
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy said his campaign would “surprise” his detractors on caucus night. Although he has toured all 99 counties in Iowa twice, he’s polling at 6.8% support, according to a RealClearPolitics Iowa polling average. Trump dominates the field at 53.6%, followed by Haley at 17.2% and DeSantis at 15.2%.
Lesser-known candidates such as former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas businessman Ryan Binkley are also running but have little hope of winning.
Which counties to watch for during the Iowa caucuses?
If DeSantis and Haley want to keep Trump from winning the Iowa caucuses or winning by a large margin, they’ll need to win over the counties he lost in 2016 when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) defeated Trump.
Chief among those counties is Johnson, where the most educated and moderate Republicans in Iowa live. A Haley win in Johnson County would not bode well for DeSantis, who needs as many voters put off by Trump to win.
Other counties Trump lost in 2016 include Story County, Dallas County, Polk County, and Linn County.
If the Florida governor wins Sioux, Lyon, Osceola, and O’Brien counties in the northwest region of Iowa, he could pull off a historic upset.
All four counties are home to some of the most evangelical voters in Iowa, of whom DeSantis has spent months courting. Winning those counties would suggest his ground game can make up for Trump’s de facto incumbency and popularity.
How inclement weather is affecting the final days before the Iowa caucuses
Iowa isn’t known for warm temperatures in the winter. But caucus night will likely be the coldest in caucus history as the Hawkeye State experiences record-breaking temperatures.
A life-threatening winter storm will descend on Iowa over the weekend and last through the caucuses. Weather forecasts show that temperatures will likely plunge below zero degrees, anywhere from minus 1 to minus 40, which could affect turnout on Monday.
Presidential candidates were forced to cancel some of their final stops in Iowa due to snow.
Trump’s campaign canceled events from surrogates who were scheduled to barnstorm in Iowa this week. The super PAC backing DeSantis, Never Back Down, canceled all Friday events. Meanwhile, Haley’s campaign switched to tele-town halls after scrapping events on Friday.
“Stormy weather won’t stop us from ensuring Iowans hear Nikki’s vision for a strong and proud America,” said Pat Garrett, an Iowa spokesman for Haley, in a statement. “With only three days until the caucuses, we’re going to keep telling voters why they should pick Nikki.”
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Ramaswamy had mocked Haley for canceling an event in Sioux City on Monday but was forced to cancel his event on Tuesday due to the inclement weather. Ramaswamy claimed it was “effectively impossible to safely get from Des Moines to Coralville.”
Ahead of the caucuses, all campaigns must work to ensure their supporters show up at 7 p.m. local time or risk underperforming in the first nominating contest of the election cycle.