WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), discounted by his critics, defied his naysayers and late polls in Iowa with a second-place finish behind former President Donald Trump but ahead of one-time U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

But although DeSantis thanked his supporters for helping him punch his ticket out of Iowa, his political destination is unknown.

DeSantis’s first stops after Iowa were in South Carolina, a decision designed to underscore what the governor has repeated countless times on the campaign trail, that his 2024 Republican primary organization is “built to last.” But with DeSantis averaging single-digit support behind Trump and Haley in New Hampshire, his path to his party’s presidential nomination remains unclear, including in the fourth nominating state, the Palmetto State.

“Nikki Haley spent more money per vote than any other candidate in Iowa to get a disastrous third – proving no amount of money can erase her record of caving to the left on every issue important to conservatives,” DeSantis communications director Andrew Romeo told the Washington Examiner. “While it may take a few more weeks to fully get there, this will be a two-person soon enough. Despite spending $24 million in false negative ads against Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley couldn’t buy herself the kill shot she so desperately wanted last night, and now she will be out of this race after failing to win her home state on Feb. 24.”

DeSantis was scheduled to take part in a meet-and-greet in Greenville, South Carolina, on Tuesday morning before spending the rest of the week ahead of New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary in the Granite State, including a televised town hall Tuesday night. But his outside group, super PAC Never Back Down, added a second event Tuesday afternoon, a press conference in Columbia, South Carolina, with state lawmakers promoting their work to protect women’s sports, a critical policy platform for the Republican base.

DeSantis’s personality and politics have appealed to more conservative voters in Iowa and South Carolina, compared to those who comprise New Hampshire’s more centrist electorate, where undeclared, independent residents can participate in the state’s pseudo-open primary process.

DeSantis is polling in third place in New Hampshire, with an average of 6.5% of the vote to Trump’s 43.5% and Haley’s 29%, though those numbers are poised to morph somewhat after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and ex-biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy suspended their campaigns amid DeSantis’s improved performance on the stump, demonstrably more comfortable with retail politics and on the debate stage. In contrast, DeSantis is comparatively stronger in South Carolina with 11% to Trump’s 52% and Haley’s 22%.

Simultaneously, South Carolina Republicans dismiss DeSantis’s chances in the state, with one strategist describing DeSantis’s challenge there as “daunting.”

“You can’t roll into South Carolina on fumes against a former president and former governor,” the source said.

Of DeSantis’s prospects in South Carolina, another Republican operative quipped “the only reason” for DeSantis to “continue on” to the state is “it is on his way home to Florida.”

“Iowa was his high watermark, and every state going forward is going to continue on a downward trajectory,” the person said. “Not going to happen for him.”

For Charles Bierbauer, University of South Carolina College of Information and Communications dean emeritus, there is “not much reason to think DeSantis would do well in South Carolina.” 

“Or even Florida, for that matter,” the former CNN Washington reporter said. “Haley should do better in New Hampshire but even struggle herself in South Carolina. … She is not universally liked among South Carolina Republicans, has a reputation of being a political opportunist. The MAGA crowd is entrenched, led by current Gov. Henry McMaster. Trump should win [South Carolina]. Haley should have enough residual support to come in second. DeSantis should [flounder].”

“I just don’t see any way forward for DeSantis and would not think he’d want to be embarrassed when Florida votes,” he added. “Indeed, unless Haley steals a win in New Hampshire, I don’t see why she’d want to be embarrassed in South Carolina. Both should have their eyes on 2028.”

DeSantis has reiterated that primaries are a series of nominating contests for delegates, indicating his intention to compete in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina and then again on Super Tuesday, when about one-third of delegates will be distributed.

In Keokuk, Iowa, Sandy Johnson, a Trump-supporting Keokuk retired retailer, 79, praised DeSantis, his campaign, and Never Back Down as hard workers. On the opposite end of the state in Council Bluffs, Peter Finn, a DeSantis supporter, recounted being door knocked “a number of times” by the governor’s campaign or super PAC.

“I had a guy who lived in Florida and he knocked on my door, and I visited with him for 15 minutes, and he was a DeSantis worker,” the Council Bluffs construction small business owner, 63, said. 

But DeSantis’s campaign and Never Back Down will only have four weeks to replicate what they did after months of embedding themselves in the first-in-the-nation state.

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In the meantime, DeSantis took a moment after Iowa’s caucuses to commemorate his second-place finish following Trump’s record-breaking margin of victory, with 51% of the vote to DeSantis’s 21% and Haley’s 19%.

“They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us,” DeSantis told a crowd Monday from his caucus watch party in West Des Moines. “They spent almost $50 million attacking us. … The media was against us — they were writing our obituary months ago. They even called the election before people even got a chance to vote.” “Because of your support, in spite of all of that they threw at us, everyone against us, we’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa,” he said.