Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) choice to refocus his campaign operation on building support in South Carolina, effectively accepting a third-place finish in New Hampshire, could end up assisting former President Donald Trump as he looks to fend off former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s rise in the Granite State.
The DeSantis campaign, under pressure from a weaker-than-hoped-for showing in Iowa, made the pivot this week, opting to relocate the majority of its staff to South Carolina. The decision, made more than a month before its Feb. 24 primary, reflects a reality there for DeSantis, who is polling in the single digits against both Trump and Haley in New Hampshire.
“The DeSantis decision to focus on South Carolina is a public admission of New Hampshire being a de facto two-person race between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump,” said former New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Vikram Mansharamani.
That’s what Haley had been hoping for coming out of Iowa, even if DeSantis isn’t ceding the entire map to her. But any support that DeSantis loses because of his lighter presence there could actually benefit Trump in the state.
His absence “shouldn’t impact things too much,” Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, cautioned given DeSantis attracted just 6% in the latest state survey.
However, more than 60% of DeSantis voters’ second choice is Trump, he said, meaning “Haley really needs DeSantis to do well in [New Hampshire], not leave.”
David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, agreed. “Among the small subset of DeSantis voters in the NH poll, they would rotate to Trump over Haley 50%-34%,” he said.
Haley stands her best shot at defeating Trump in New Hampshire given its larger share of independent voters, though she trails him by roughly 13 points in the latest polling. Meanwhile, DeSantis appears to be betting he will appeal to the more conservative electorate in South Carolina despite it being Haley’s home state.
The former governor still leads DeSantis in South Carolina, 22% to 11% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, but she is far behind Trump’s 52%.
New Hampshire Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett says DeSantis “clearly” thinks Haley will lose in both South Carolina and the Granite State and predicted his move in South Carolina is part of a larger strategy to “take on Trump one on one” down the line.
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“He seems fine to have Trump win the next three contests,” he said, referencing the New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina primaries and caucuses.
The strategy is risky “at best,” he said, “but at this point, everyone not named Trump needs to take risks — even if the odds are not in their favor.”