Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s 2024 presidential campaign and associated super PAC have made noticeable changes to their messaging, strongly pushing the idea of Haley as an “insurgent” and an “outsider” taking on the “political establishment.”
The strategy hearkens back to Haley’s branding during her campaigns for various state roles in South Carolina, where she served two terms as governor. But she faces a reputational roadblock in the Trump era of the Republican Party that considers her a full-fledged member of said establishment, as well as a “globalist,” due to her more interventionist-leaning foreign policy beliefs and time serving in the United Nations.
During her speech following the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, which she lost to former President Donald Trump, Haley recalled beating “the political establishment” each time she ran for office in South Carolina.
Haley communications director Nachama Soloveichik echoed this language, writing in a press release, “The political elites never learn. The same naysayers who said Nikki Haley couldn’t defeat a 30-year incumbent state legislator or win the governor’s race in South Carolina are the same people declaring the presidential race over after only two states have voted.”
“Nikki Haley has never taken her cues from the establishment, and she’s not going to start now. Keep underestimating us — that will be fun,” she added.
Super PAC Stand for America Fund Inc., which is supporting Haley’s presidential bid, wrote in a recent memo, “This is an insurgency.” The PAC noted Trump’s many endorsements, particularly from lawmakers representing South Carolina, claiming, “Donald Trump has the support of the politicians in DC.”
As for Haley, the PAC said, “Nikki’s campaign is powered by the grassroots.”
SFA Fund Inc.’s lead strategist, Mark Harris, claimed Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel’s call on Haley to end her campaign was evidence of Trump’s preferential status among “insiders.”
Director of the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University Scott Huffmon explained this isn’t entirely new for Haley. “She has been painting herself as the insurgent the outsider even while she was in the highest elected office in South Carolina,” he said. He recalled her tea party roots and the movement’s insurgent nature.
“It is fair to say that she ran as an insurgent in 2010 and at times governed as one as well,” agreed University of South Carolina political scientist David Darmofal.
Her outsider campaigns worked years ago in the Palmetto State, and it appears her 2024 team is looking to replicate that success.
But, after Haley left the governorship to serve as U.N. ambassador in the Trump administration, her reputation underwent a transformation. She was hit for her sometimes indecipherable politics, which on occasion leaned into Trump-era nationalism, while appealing to the traditional Washington, D.C., establishment at other times. She wasn’t fully accepted by the Trump-eqsue wing of Republicans, who wrote her off as a part of that establishment.
Her far more interventionist and hawkish foreign policy beliefs further contrasted Haley with the “America First” Trump base, which has a significant stronghold in South Carolina.
Before dropping out of the 2024 race, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) drew attention to Haley’s nonalignment with the group of Republicans on the front-and-center foreign policy issues of the day. “You can take the ambassador out of the United Nations, but you can’t take the United Nations out of the ambassador,” he said during CNN’s Iowa Republican caucuses debate earlier this month.
Given her long history in both South Carolina and politics, Haley faces an uphill battle when it comes to repairing her image.
However, several Republican strategists noted that Haley’s framing is correct given Trump’s status as a previous president who has run for office three times. “The swamp drainer has become the establishment, ironically,” remarked South Carolina GOP strategist Chip Felkel.
Republican strategist Doug Heye added to this, pointing out that Trump boasts “the overwhelming majority of endorsements,” making him “clearly the establishment of the GOP.”
It’s “fair” to consider Trump the establishment, given his “dominance over the Republican Party,” noted Darmofal.
Explaining some of the confusion, Republican strategist David Kochel said, “It felt like a hostile takeover,” in reference to Trump’s rise in the Republican Party. “But he is fully in charge.”
But despite the case made by strategists, it doesn’t appear South Carolina’s Republicans will view Trump as a member of the elite or the political establishment.
Newberry County Republican Chairman Alan Jenkins doesn’t think people will buy it, saying, “We see her as an insider — the pick of the elites.”
“It’s almost the same tactic they use on the Democratic side,” he said. “They call people what they’re actually doing — they accuse other people of doing it.”
The suggestion of Haley as the outsider and Trump as the establishment is “a joke,” said Pickens County Republican Chairman Bob Fetterly.
Greenville County Chairwoman Yvonne Julian claimed Haley wouldn’t be able to use this rhetorical strategy to convince South Carolinian Republicans. “We understand those plays with language,” she explained, adding, “She can tell us what she wants.”
This message from Haley isn’t likely to resonate, remarked Dorchester County Republican Chairman Steven Wright. “When President Trump served in office, he challenged the political establishment of both parties,” he said. “And no matter how many endorsements he has from people in Washington, people still view him as the outsider businessman who is going to get things done.”
Kochel predicted Haley’s attempt to reframe would run into such a problem. “It’s going to be very difficult for people to see Trump as something other than a disruptive force in politics,” he stated. That disruptiveness is intrinsically connected to Trump, regardless of his influence over the GOP and its members, he noted.
Republican strategist John Feehery pointed to the public and privately reported support Haley has received from groups and individuals. “Haley is not a maverick. She is the choice of the old guard,” he said. “No matter how she frames it.”
Ultimately, insurgent versus establishment isn’t guaranteed to determine how South Carolina Republicans vote on Feb. 24. According to Huffmon, “It’s basically just Trump or not Trump.”
He detailed that Trump’s support from the state’s Republicans is incredibly widespread, stretching from “classic establishment Republicans to the same type of people who were Tea Party in 2010. All the way to evangelicals.”
Even if her strategy is effective in terms of shifting her reputation, Trump’s support is nearly immovable in the state, according to party members.
“They’re committed to Trump,” Jenkins said of the large swath of Republican voters planning to choose Trump. And, he said, DeSantis’s ad campaigns against her managed to sour opinions on Haley further. “She’s lost a lot of support,” he claimed. “Ads that came out about her allowing China to have factories here and some of the quotes they had from that timeframe, I think have been very effective.”
Fetterly added, “She sold us out in every way you can sell out,” recalling Haley’s time as governor, specifically referencing her promises on the gas tax, which were featured in a pro-Trump ad.
In the “iconic suburban Bellwether area” of Dorchester County, as Wright referred to it, “it’s very clear from the people that I speak to that they are going to be supporting the former president.” The county isn’t far from the politically mixed city of Charleston or Haley’s home on Kiawah Island.
Julian said Haley isn’t going to successfully convince Republicans in South Carolina to back her and that if anything, “she is a home for people who have never supported Trump to begin with.”
Trump’s campaign agreed with this assessment, with spokesman Steven Cheung telling the Washington Examiner, “Nikki Haley is the candidate of Democrats and Never Trumpers, which is why she and her allies support Democrats invading Republican primaries.”
Since South Carolina’s Republican primary isn’t restricted, as the state does not register voters by party, anyone can participate so long as they didn’t already vote in the Democratic primary on Feb. 3. Harris noted this to reporters on a call Wednesday, adding, “it’ll be our mission to grow the Republican Party.”
Harris didn’t suggest that Haley would necessarily court Democrats and independents but claimed, “We’re going to work to bring in as many new people to the Republican Party as possible.”
But Harris also said, “We’re going to get better with Republicans,” recalling Haley’s conservative record.
It’s not clear those efforts will be fruitful, however. According to Fetterly, “Nikki’s campaign has been emailing and texting our members to the point it’s become a joke like a jealous ex-girlfriend.”
South Carolina isn’t known for a large undecided and independent electorate the way New Hampshire is, which could pose a problem for Haley. “Do they exist? Yes,” said Huffmon. “Can you get enough of them to the polling booth to overcome Trump’s lead? That is a tall order.”
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“She should pull out now to avoid embarrassment,” Jenkins advised.
The most recent South Carolina primary poll from Emerson College shows Trump with more than half of Republican support, 29 points ahead of Haley. Trump boasted 54% in the measure, while Haley garnered 25%. When the poll was conducted, DeSantis had not yet dropped out, and he picked up 7%. Since the poll, which was released the first week of January, Trump has won nominating contests in both Iowa and New Hampshire.