EXCLUSIVE — Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley could lose the Nevada primary to the “none of these candidates” option, according to a new survey, an outcome that would threaten her hopes of defeating former President Donald Trump.
New polling released by Providence, a collaborative effort between Revere Solutions and DecipherAi, showed 59.2% of Nevada Republican primary voters saying they would select “none of these candidates” during the Feb. 6 GOP primary election, compared to 40.8% who would choose Haley.
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The loss to essentially no candidate would damper Haley’s battle to remain in the 2024 primary after Trump won the Iowa caucuses by more than 30 points and the New Hampshire primary by 11 points over Haley.
Unlike the earlier nominating states, Nevada is unique in that it will hold both a primary and caucuses. Trump is participating in the caucuses on Feb. 8, which the state GOP will use to allocate delegates. As the only major candidate running, Trump is expected to win the caucuses and the state’s 26 delegates. Haley chose to run in the Feb. 6 primary, forfeiting the right to appear on the caucus ballot.
Registered Republicans are allowed to participate in both the caucuses and the primary.
“Here’s my conclusion: If Nikki Haley’s going to lose to no one, how can she beat Trump? How can she beat Joe Biden?” Revere Solutions CEO Woodrow Johnston, who is not affiliated with any presidential campaign, told the Washington Examiner. “This whole narrative that she’s the best candidate against Joe Biden is really just kind of shattered because it’s like she can’t even beat literally no one.”
The former two-term South Carolina governor has campaigned heavily on a Wall Street Journal poll from December 2023 that showed her beating Biden by 17 percentage points. But Republican strategists are highly skeptical that Haley can dethrone Trump to become the GOP’s standard-bearer.
Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based Republican strategist, told the Washington Examiner that he does not see a path forward for Haley.
“If she goes through with the South Carolina primary, she’s going to be embarrassed, and then her political career is going to be over, at least for this cycle,” O’Connell said.
O’Connell said a loss to the “none of these candidates” option would be “worse than the situation the Biden folks were facing in New Hampshire.” Due to a spat between the Democratic National Committee and New Hampshire state law, Biden allies were forced to stage a grassroots write-in campaign that successfully boosted the president to a win in the Granite State’s primary.
But Haley’s campaign lacks the infrastructure needed in Nevada. She largely has bypassed the state and instead is focusing on campaigning in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its primary on Feb. 24.
She trails Trump in the Palmetto State, 63.8% to 31.9%, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. But Haley said her goal is to perform better than she did in New Hampshire, where she received 43.2% of the vote.
Johnston predicted that a loss in Nevada followed by another in South Carolina could be the death knell for Haley’s campaign.
“I presume that they’re going to try to ignore it and just act like, well, it didn’t matter anyway, and we already ceded Nevada,” he said. “The Trump campaign may use this as an opportunity to say, ‘Hey, you lost to nobody. And now, I’m going to beat you in your own home state.’ So, I think this could be the one-two punch that ends it, that puts, finally, the Nikki Haley campaign to rest.”
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The Haley campaign has not yet responded to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment.
The poll, by Providence, a joint polling venture with pollster David Wolfson of DecipherAi and Johnston of Revere Solutions, was conducted Sunday and Monday with a sample size of 476 voters. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.