In 2022, Kari Lake ran for governor in Arizona as a hard-charging conservative outsider who was quick to turn on the GOP establishment — and at the time, her campaign was one national Republicans kept at arm’s length, worried about her electability in the battleground state.
That has changed two years later, as the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm endorsed Lake’s candidacy on Tuesday, a major boost that comes with legitimacy and potentially lots of cash and resources.
“Kari Lake is one of the most talented candidates in the country,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Kari is building out an effective campaign operation that has what it takes to flip Arizona’s Senate seat in November.”
For over a year, Lake has been silently courting the Senate GOP establishment in Washington, making her way to the Capitol to meet with lawmakers and high-ranking officials. Lake and Daines began communicating regularly after he took the helm at the NRSC in November 2022, and the two have developed a good rapport, according to a source familiar with the matter.
As internal polling showed Lake would likely win in the primary, in which she is competing against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, more Senate Republicans began to embrace the former local news anchor. In mid-October 2023, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), the Senate GOP Conference chairman, became the highest-ranking Republican to endorse Lake, a sign that the party’s leaders were beginning to warm to her candidacy.
A turning point came last weekend when Lake attended the NRSC’s winter meeting at The Breakers resort in Palm Beach, Florida, where she got face time with GOP senators and some of the party’s largest donors — and they were impressed. NRSC officials also have been encouraged by recent polling that has shown Arizona as a toss-up race whether Lake faces Democratic opponent Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) one-on-one or a three-way contest with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who has not yet decided if she will be running for reelection as an Independent.
“I am honored to have the endorsement of Chairman Daines and the NRSC,” Lake said in a statement. “We are uniting Republicans in Arizona and have a clear path to victory. The Senate Majority runs through Arizona.”
The NRSC plans to host a fundraiser for Lake in Washington, D.C., in early March alongside both Daines and Barrasso. The Wyoming senator also plans to travel to Arizona on Feb. 29 to campaign for Lake.
“Kari has put in the hard work,” said an adviser to the campaign, who asked to remain anonymous to reflect candidly on the race. “The NRSC process is a grueling earned endorsement. She has a very experienced campaign team that has won races, and it’s showing again with her fundraising and her campaign team on the ground.”
Lake’s Senate campaign looks nothing like her 2022 gubernatorial run, during which she leaned on a staff of political neophytes and rejected traditional political consultants and meetings with donors.
“During the primary, the other Republicans sort of bought up the consultant class in Arizona,” Colton Duncan, a key aide to Lake, said in an interview with the Washington Examiner ahead of the general election for her gubernatorial run back in 2022. “It made her something that no one wanted to touch. When she won, they started approaching her, but she wasn’t interested. I would dare any consultant to tell Kari what she should and should not say based off of polling. She’s going to laugh you out the door.”
According to those advising her campaign, Lake has changed her posture and is open to taking pointers from influential Republicans in Washington.
“They’ll give her advice on messaging, campaigning — and she takes that very seriously,” the adviser said. “She’s in regular contact with Sen. Barrasso, Sen. Daines, Sen. (Tom) Cotton (R-AR), Sen. (John) Thune (R-SD). She talks to these people all of the time.”
Since Sinema’s victory in 2018, Arizona has transformed from a solid red state to one of the country’s most competitive battlegrounds. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory over then-President Donald Trump in the state helped him secure the White House. In December 2020, Arizona had two Democratic senators for the first time since 1952 after Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) was sworn in. In 2022, Lake and three other Republicans running for major statewide offices lost. It was the first time Democrats held all major statewide positions since 1950.
Lake was among one of the most vocal of the Republican candidates who promoted Trump’s claims to have won the 2020 election. After narrowly losing her bid for governor to Democrat Katie Hobbs in 2022, Lake continued to challenge the outcome in state court, claiming widespread irregularities. She has toned down her focus on the legitimacy of past elections but has not avoided it entirely.
“There’s this media caricature of her sometimes that’s unfair — you see a clip of her on social media, but then you meet her, and she connects with people very well,” Lake’s adviser said.
However, some are skeptical about how long Lake will play nice with establishment Republicans. Just last month, state GOP chairman Jeff Dewit abruptly resigned from his position after Lake released a March 2023 audio recording in which he was heard offering her what she viewed as a bribe in an effort to keep her out of the race for U.S. Senate. Gina Swoboda, an election activist endorsed by the former president, was chosen as the next chairwoman of the Arizona Republican Party during an annual GOP meeting in late January.
“I think most Republicans I’ve spoken to are worried that she’s recording them if they meet with her,” Arizona-based Republican strategist Paul Bentz said. “I don’t know if, in the state, she’s having as much luck unifying Republicans as maybe she is having with the NRSC putting their finger on the scale.”
In recent months, Lake has been on a mission to court centrist Republicans she unapologetically attacked when running for governor last cycle.
“Her persona from what she’s saying to those people behind closed doors compared to how she behaves in press conferences and on social media still don’t necessarily jive with one another,” Bentz said. “If these folks from the NRSC think that she’s going to take their direction and strategy, it’ll be interesting to see if they will be able to do something that few other people have been able to do, which is to get her to listen.”
Other Republicans in the state have concluded that the national party had no choice but to support Lake, who has been the front-runner in the Arizona GOP primary.
“Look, I’m not a fan of Lake — but I just think Republicans had to get on board with her,” said a Phoenix-based GOP strategist who asked to remain anonymous. “It would have been a bad look if they didn’t. She really could be a great candidate if she talks about immigration, the economy, things that matter to voters here.
“She is charismatic, engaging, and has so much potential,” the strategist continued. “But, that all unravels when she starts talking about previous elections, or recordings from the past, or conspiracy theories, then we have some serious problems.”
Democrats are celebrating the NRSC’s endorsement of Lake and sent out a statement before it was announced Tuesday.
“Kari Lake is the poster child for Senate Republicans’ candidate quality problem and abysmal recruiting strategy,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Tommy Garcia said in a statement. “An election loser despised by Arizona Republicans, Lake brings massive baggage and disqualifying flaws to the campaign. We’re thrilled with the NRSC’s choice.”
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Senate Democrats are waiting anxiously for Sinema to make a decision about whether she’ll run for reelection. If she decides not to run, it would take the pressure off the national party, which has remained neutral thus far. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the DSCC have not said whether they would back Sinema over Gallego if she decides to run again. DSCC typically supports incumbents, but after the Arizona senator left the party in 2022, it is even more unclear.
An aide for Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest outside group focused on Senate races, said it will continue spending resources solely focused on attacking Lake for now.