LAS VEGAS — President Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Nevada in 2020 in part on the strength of his support from Latino and union voters.
But shifting attitudes on the economy and border, plus recent Republican inroads in those communities, are raising fresh questions as to whether Biden could lose a decidedly purple state to the former president in November.
Biden won the Silver State in the 2020 election by less than 3 points. And a repeat in 2024 is far from guaranteed. In Morning Consult‘s latest Nevada polling for Bloomberg News, Trump was defeating Biden 48% to 40%.
The poll follows a national trend, with Biden’s approval ratings underwater and Trump leading in key battleground states. But whether Trump, the likely Republican nominee for president, wins in Nevada will depend on if he can appeal to the unique demographics of the state.
In particular, he will need to court Hispanics, who make up more than 30% of its residents, and union households, as the state boasts a membership rate of 12.4%, above the national average of 10% in 2023.
These groups have incrementally shifted away from their historically consistent support of Democrats but more sided with Biden in 2020.
Peter Guzman, the president and CEO of the Latin Chamber of Commerce Nevada, believes Hispanics and Latinos will be the deciding factor in 2024, but he said they aren’t going to be making their final decisions any time soon. “They’re definitely waiting. They’re paying attention like they never had before,” he said. Their decisions will be based on education and “how their wallet looks.”
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden maintained support from the majority of Hispanic voters, but Trump still managed to improve his posture with the demographic from 2016, particularly within the working class, according to the Pew Research Center. This trend toward Republicans could be a problem for Biden, as roughly 40% of votes in his favor came from racial and ethnic minorities and thus are an integral part of his electoral coalition.
The increase in support for Trump among Latinos was reiterated by Guzman, who said the various indictments against the former president were just serving as ”noise” to those in the community and predicted that Trump’s numbers were going up. He further noted that Latinos in Nevada “conducting business and living a good life absolutely understand border security, and they do not agree with open borders.” This has notably been a prominent campaign issue for Trump since his first bid in 2016.
President of the Global Human Rights League Eva Sara Landau, an immigrant from Bolivia who wore a “Latinas for Trump” shirt to the former president’s Nevada caucus celebration, agreed that the border is “very important for Nevada,” given its geographic proximity. She claimed other Hispanics had approached her upon seeing her supportive Trump shirt, explaining, “They start sitting down with me and they said, ‘The border – that is the most dangerous thing.’”
As for union members and their families in the Silver State, a strong showing attended Biden’s recent campaign event in North Las Vegas, where he touted his record as the “most pro-union president in history.” Biden made history last year during the United Auto Workers strike when he became the first sitting president to join striking union workers in a picket line. During the event, members reinforced their commitment to the president.
But in polls since Trump arrived on the political scene in 2015, union workers have shown an openness to Trump, who is in turn courting the group at every juncture. During the UAW strike, Trump made the trip to Michigan, diverting from the traditional primary campaign locations, to speak to workers. More recently, the former president met twice in the new year with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters in the hope of securing the group’s endorsement.
One retired Teamsters member in Nevada recently explained to the Washington Examiner why he planned to support Trump. “I don’t care if you’re Democrat or Republican. I look at who’s gonna put money in my pocket,” said Ken Varney. He participated in the state’s primary last week, voting for “none of these candidates” as well as backing Trump in the Republican caucuses.
He claimed to be “way better off four years ago.” “And I don’t know a person, one, that can dispute that,” he said.
“Everybody had hope, money, opportunities. It was everywhere,” he said of the economic environment under Trump.
Varney’s reasoning for his vote is one cited by many as their top issue going into the November election: The economy.
During Biden’s tenure, there have been several positive economic indicators, and a recession has been avoided. But voter sentiment isn’t recouping at the same rate.
Confronted with this obstacle, Attorney General Aaron Ford, a top Biden surrogate, said, “It’s going to take personal stories and talking about how this economy is helping people.”
The Nevada official explained that “Wall Street is distinct from Main Street.”
And to address economic concerns, Ford explained Democrats and Biden need to have an open dialogue with those on “Main Street” about what they need. “We are actively engaged in those conversations at all times to ascertain the best things to help them,” he said.
While the attorney general was confident in Democrats’ ability to demonstrate economic accomplishments to Nevadan voters, he ceded that it’s certainly a challenge, but one that will be met ahead of the election.
As to whether wavering support in key Nevada demographic groups would hobble the Biden campaign, Nevada Democratic Party Executive Director Hilary Barrett similarly signaled faith in their abilities.
“I think this is something that in Nevada we’re very good at,” she said. “We build a large political machine every cycle. We win on razor-thin margins. We have wonderful candidates.”
“We’re doing everything we can to remind voters of the accomplishments we’ve made over the last couple years. And we don’t take any vote for granted,” she added. Especially not those of the Latino community, Barrett said, emphasizing their proportion of the state’s citizens.
Ford also pointed out the reality of Nevada being “a purple state.” He said, “You have to work for the votes here, no matter what.”
He recalled his own electoral races in the state, saying, “The fact of the matter is under every circumstance I’ve had to ensure that I addressed issues of Nevada constituents. The Democrats, Republicans, male, female, black, white, Latino, Asian American — it doesn’t matter at the end of the day.”
However, Biden could have trouble with voter enthusiasm within his base, in Nevada and nationally. In particular, the war between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, which has wrought devastation for civilians in Gaza, has become divisive for Democrats, especially younger voters.
Following the president’s remarks in North Las Vegas last week, a group of protesters slammed U.S. support of Israel in the war. One demonstrator with a megaphone called Biden “a racist, Islamaphobic president,” while others held Palestinian flags and Biden-Harris signs with fake bloody handprints on them.
One protester named Nora told the Washington Examiner that her friends, Arab, Muslim, Jewish, and Christian, were not planning on supporting Biden “simply for this reason.”
“Trump is a better option, honestly,” she said. “Like, at this point, Trump is a better option.”
Sean Doyle, an author who voted in the Nevada Democratic primary, noted that this was a significant issue for him. But he still cast his ballot for Biden: “At this moment in time, I cannot do Donald Trump. I can’t do it again.”
A rather new Trump surrogate, former presidential candidate Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), expressed confidence in Republicans’ ability to flip the state in an interview with the Washington Examiner during the former president’s Nevada celebration. “People were lined up around the block waiting to get into these, in an uncontested primary, because the average American … they’re not buying the spin that they’re being sold by the Democratic Party,” he said.
He pointed to the various legal cases against Trump, adding, “That’s why they’re so enthusiastically supporting the president. They can understand what lawfare is.”
But even some of Trump’s supporters who attended such caucuses weren’t as sure about Nevada’s fate in November.
Cathy Peck said she didn’t have a good idea of whether Biden would be able to win the state again. “I don’t know. With everything that’s happened, you just don’t know. I don’t think so,” she said.
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She and her husband Roland are “sure hoping” that Trump wins it, however.
Fellow caucusgoer John Goetz said he believes “it’s gonna go Trump,” but his wife Carol was skeptical, saying, “Maybe.”