The leading indicators of whether presidents win reelection or not are down for President Joe Biden in a damning new assessment of his chances to keep his job in the fall.

If considered on their own, the likelihood that the Democrat will win reelection is “not promising,” according to Gallup.

The one chance of pulling out a victory, proving that the economy is in good shape, was undercut twice this week when inflation came in hotter than expected, according to two separate federal reports.

“Many Americans continue to struggle financially, and Biden has so far been unable to convince voters of the economy’s health or his accomplishments. If he cannot do so by the summer, particularly before the Democratic National Convention, his chances of winning reelection will grow increasingly bleak,” the polling outfit said.

The key indicators of reelection are a president’s approval rating, voter satisfaction with the direction of the country, confidence in the economy, party identification, whether voters feel that they are better off or not, personal finances, and international respect. And in all, Biden is underwater, Gallup’s charts showed.

The president’s approval rating is the one most pollsters cite as the top indicator of staying in office. Presidents who win reelection are typically at or above 50% approval, and Biden sits at 41%, the lowest since 1958. The only sitting president to win reelection with a sub-50% approval was former President George W. Bush, who was at 48% in the polls.

Gallup cited Biden’s former boss, former President Barack Obama, as a potential model to follow. Obama was able to claw back from unpopularity going into his reelection year to beat Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT).

But the pollster said that Biden has even more problems snagging his reelection than Obama had.

“Biden’s chances may rest on him experiencing a comeback similar to what Obama achieved in 2012 when Biden was serving as vice president. That year, national mood indicators and Obama’s job approval rating significantly improved during the campaign, and the president was elected to a second term. Unlike Obama, though, Biden also faces questions about his age and ability to carry out his duties in a second term. Biden is also starting at a lower point in job approval than Obama did, meaning he has to show a bigger improvement,” Gallup said.

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Unsaid, however, are the problems Biden’s likely challenger faces. Former President Donald Trump remains a polarizing political figure who is fighting off multiple legal and criminal cases and is unliked by many voters. The result is that despite the economic problems of the country and questions about Biden’s hazy mind and age at 81, the two typically are tied or very close in head-to-head general election matchups.

Nevertheless, Gallup’s harsh report suggested that Biden is in trouble. The bottom line, according to Gallup, is that “Biden’s reelection chances do not look very favorable in early 2024. His job approval rating is lower than all recent incumbents at the same point, including those who ultimately lost the election, and key national mood indicators are more in line with those for past losers than winners.”