Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) announcement that she would not seek a second term is sparking fresh concerns about the future of the filibuster, a rule that has forced bipartisanship in the Senate.
Along with Sinema, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) will also be retiring at the end of this term. The pair served as a roadblock to prevent the erosion of the 60-vote threshold to end debate that gives the minority party the power to block legislation. The two senators prevented the weakening of the filibuster in 2022 when Democrats wanted to pass sweeping voting rights legislation.
There’s a real possibility that Democrats could try to make another run at reforming the filibuster, depending on which party controls Washington come January. However, the map of Senate seats up for election in 2024 is favorable for Republicans. Twenty Democratic-held seats are up, as are the three held by independents who caucus with the Democrats. Just 10 seats controlled by Republicans will be on the ballot.
“I hope that we will use this opportunity to take a hard look at the Senate rules,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill), speaking to reporters earlier this week. “A filibuster has dramatically changed the United States Senate for the worse. We’re no longer a deliberative, mandatory body and it’s because of the filibuster. And I miss it. I remember the days when it was a fulsome, bipartisan chamber.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) echoed a similar message on Wednesday, emphasizing that there are causes he believes are worth weakening the 60-vote threshold for, like codifying voting rights legislation.
“When people attempt to … take away voting rights particularly of the most disenfranchised people, we have an obligation to do everything we can to restore those voting rights,” Schumer said.
Many Democrats running in Senate races have also embraced “filibuster reform,” like Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) running for Sinema’s now open seat in Arizona.
“I do think that now that the Supreme Court has struck down Roe, we should pass a national protection to the right to an abortion, we will not be able to do that with certain senators right now who won’t overturn a filibuster to do it – but I will,” Gallego said on the Pod Save America podcast in August, adding the threshold should be changed to “codify rights,” such as voting.
Republicans could also abolish the filibuster next time they control Congress and the White House. However, Senate Republicans pledged that would not happen. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has advocated to keep the measure, but he recently announced he will step down as Senate Republican leader at the end of the year. However, both Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX), who are in the running to succeed him have committed to keeping the rule in place.
“It’s going to be up to us, and for sure whoever the leader is, to defend the institution. And the role the Senate plays constitutionally,” Thune said this week, speaking to reporters. “We’ve got to make sure, if we get the majority, that we have a majority of Republicans committed to its defense.”
This week, during a visit to the Senate, Kari Lake, who is the front-running Republican candidate facing Gallego in Arizona, also committed to keeping to filibuster and praised Sinema’s efforts to uphold it.
“I appreciate courage, courage is a virtue that is so desperately needed right now. And for her to stand up and protect the filibuster, I know how hard that is to stand up, when you have constant incoming and I appreciate that,” Lake said speaking with reporters on Tuesday. “I think she’s a courageous woman.”
The filibuster has been altered recently in regard to executive branch and judicial nominees. In 2013, former Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) invoked the “nuclear option,” which reduced the threshold for non-Supreme Court judicial nominees from 60 to 51 votes. Four years later, McConnell then altered similar rules for those nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Some Republicans say they are worried about a change that could come as a result of pressure from a future President Donald Trump.
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“Look, Trump had called for Republicans to get rid of the filibuster during his years in office, but McConnell served as a roadblock. Are the Republicans competing for McConnell’s job going to be strong enough to stand up to Trump if he becomes president again? I’m unsure,” said a Republican operative, speaking on the condition of anonymity in an effort to reflect candidly on the situation.
“To be honest, I’m worried about the future of the filibuster changing as we know it if either Democrats or Republicans take the majority,” the person said.