EXCLUSIVE — The race to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in the House is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the 2024 cycle, and it could come down to which party has the most money to spare.
Republican candidate Tom Barrett leads Democrat Curtis Hertel by 7 percentage points, garnering 44% of the vote compared to Hertel’s 37%, according to internal polling commissioned by the Barrett campaign and obtained by the Washington Examiner. The polling memo shows Barrett holds an advantage over Hertel thanks to stronger name recognition in the district, which he likely accumulated after running against Slotkin in the 2022 midterm elections.
Barrett lost to Slotkin by 5.4 points in 2022, although the Republican candidate was vastly outspent by the Democratic incumbent. But with Slotkin exiting the race to run for U.S. Senate, Republicans view the seat as a prime pickup opportunity next year.
“Tom Barrett was outspent $11 million to $3 million in his 2022 race against Democratic incumbent Elissa Slotkin, but still ran 6% ahead of the top of the ticket,” the polling memo states. “If Barrett has the resources to compete with Democrat Curtis Hertel, he will win the 7th District.”
The race for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District has become one of the most competitive races on the ballot in November after Slotkin announced her Senate bid last year. The district has been rated as a toss-up by the nonpartisan CookPoliticalReport.
“Michiganders are concerned about the direction of the country and the failures of the Biden Administration on the border, inflation, crime, and national security,” Barrett said in a statement. “They want commonsense leaders in Congress who will do what’s right, not trendy. These threats to our security are real and I’m running for Congress to put our interests ahead of the special interests.”
But Democrats have expressed confidence in their chances, noting Barrett’s initial lead at 44% in the internal poll is lower than the 46% he secured during the 2022 election against Slotkin. Spokespeople for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have also touted their fundraising prowess and hinted at the areas in which they plan to hit Barrett leading into the general election.
“After spending millions of dollars to boost his name ID, Tom Barrett is behind where he was in his losing effort in 2022,” DCCC spokesman Aidan Johnson told the Washington Examiner. “Voters rejected Barrett last cycle and will reject him again when reminded that he is an anti-abortion extremist who repeatedly voted against bringing thousands of new auto jobs to mid-Michigan.”
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 42 competitive seats, 17 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.