Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is holding ground with independent voters against his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, in what’s expected to be a close race for Montana’s up-for-grabs Senate seat. 

The Democratic incumbent gathered support from 44% of independent voters compared to Sheehy’s 34% in the latest survey from Emerson College Polling and the Hill. Overall, Tester is backed by 44% of 1,000 likely voters, while 42% supported Sheehy. 

“Independent Montana voters break for Senator Tester by 10 points, 44% to 34%,” Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Fourteen percent of 2024 Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote for Tester, while 71% support Trump-endorsed Sheehy.”

In the last Emerson poll conducted in October 2023, Tester had garnered 39% support, while Sheehy followed closely with 35%. Additionally, 21% of respondents remained undecided.

The recent polling shows 14% of respondents are undecided. 

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report considers Tester’s seat to be a “toss-up,” one of only three seats held by Democrats under that category. To maintain their narrow majority in the Senate, Democrats need to win the tightly contested seats in the 2024 elections, which include the seats held by Tester, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Arizona’s open contest.

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Former President Donald Trump endorsed Sheehy, a Navy SEAL veteran, in February, setting up Montana to be a closely watched Senate race. Montana overwhelmingly voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election, and exit data show the former president swept independent voters from President Joe Biden.

Tester is one of the last remaining Democratic senators in a red state. Republican lawmakers initially threw their support behind Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) before he dropped his Senate bid a week after he launched his campaign following Trump’s endorsement of Sheehy.