Inflation, as measured by the producer price index, rose to 1.6% for the year ending in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday, much hotter than expected.
The increase came after a slight decrease the month before. Most economists had forecast the inflation rate would rise to 1.1%, so the latest numbers are not good news for the Federal Reserve.
On a month-to-month basis, the price index increased by 0.6%, double what was expected.
The new inflation numbers come the same week the more closely watched consumer price index report for February was released. As measured in the CPI, inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.2% for the year ending in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday, an unwelcome development given hopes that the central bank would soon begin trimming interest rates.
Investors and policymakers have recently become more optimistic that the Fed will be able to pull off a “soft landing,” a scenario in which inflation falls back to the Fed’s 2% target rate while the broader economy avoids a recession.
But expectations of rate cuts have now been pushed back. Most investors now expect the long-awaited pivot to come in June or July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which calculates the probability using futures contract prices for rates in the short-term market targeted by the Fed.
Inflation has been blamed on factors on the supply and demand sides of the equation. Republicans generally blame inflation on the rash of stimulus spending amid the pandemic, coupled with ultralow interest rates. Democrats often highlight supply-side problems and note that inflation has increased in most Western countries and not just stateside.
The labor market has remained strong despite the higher interest rate environment.
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The economy beat expectations again in February and added 275,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. The unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.9%. The unemployment rate remains low by historical standards.
In more good news, GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, adjusted for inflation, bringing growth for the year to 2.5% in 2023.