WEST SULPHUR SPRINGS, West Virginia — Once considered Democrats’ best chance to flip the House in their favor next year, redistricting cases across the country are now being championed by Republican leaders as their strongest weapon to grow their slim majority. 

At least five states have undergone congressional map changes due to court rulings or litigation following the 2022 midterm elections, setting the stage for a vastly different battleground heading into November. Democrats initially viewed those court challenges as an opportunity to alter congressional boundaries in their favor to chip away at Republicans’ historically small margins. 

But as those cases get resolved, the landscape has not done much to alter the playing field — and Republican leaders are framing those decisions as a victory. 

“A lot of people thought the Republicans would be behind, but it’s actually been a wash overall if you look at all of them and how that all settled out around the country,” Johnson told reporters at the annual GOP retreat in Greenbrier Resort on Wednesday. “We will actually be about even as where we were, but we’ll pick up four seats in North Carolina. We believe we can pick up seats in California and Texas and other places.”

North Carolina approved a new map late last year, altering all 14 of the state’s districts, creating 10 districts that favor Republicans, three that favor a Democrat, and one that would be considered a toss-up. The decision makes it virtually impossible for some incumbent Democrats to hold on to their seats, including those currently held by Reps. Jeff Jackson (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC), and Kathy Manning (D-NC). As a result, all three have announced they would not run for reelection next year. 

Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) remains in a toss-up seat, although the North Carolina Democrat is still running for reelection. 

House GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) similarly took a victory lap on the congressional boundaries recently approved in her home state of New York. 

“Democrats really put all of their eggs in the redistricting basket, and it has been a complete wipeout for Democrats,” Stefanik said. “They were hoping to pick up three or four seats in New York, and they didn’t get that. In fact, all of our incumbents, I believe, are coming back [to] districts — either they were untouched or they were slightly changed. And it was a huge win for New York Republicans.”

Republicans also notched a win in Wisconsin earlier this month after the state Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge to the state’s congressional map, dealing a blow to Democrats who argued it offered an unfair advantage to Republicans. 

Democrats brushed off the threat of redistricting to their electoral chances, noting that some of their losses in North Carolina have been offset in other states with new congressional districts. 

For example, at least one House Republican faces a tougher reelection bid in November due to the new maps: Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY). His district shifted from being a toss-up to now being “lean Democrat,” according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. 

Democrats are also poised to pick up at least one seat in Alabama and Louisiana thanks to new district boundaries. 

Democratic officials also criticized Republicans for championing redrawn maps ahead of the next elections, noting it doesn’t amount to an actual strategy on how to maintain power in the lower chamber. 

“Just to be clear, House Republicans are bragging about how good they are at gerrymandering as an electoral strategy,” Viet Shelton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told the Washington Examiner. “Aside from being a direct assault on our democracy, it says a lot about how little regard they have for free and fair elections and the voters of this country.”

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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.

However, of the 42 competitive seats, 17 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.