Even former Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan would concede his U.S. Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) will be difficult based on Democrats’s almost 2-1 voter registration advantage in the sapphire blue state.

But with a poll indicating Hogan has a double-digit edge on the leading Democratic primary candidates, Democrats may have to spend money in the state when they already have to contend with a disadvantageous 2024 map.

Hogan, who decided last month to launch a campaign for the Senate instead of a speculated presidential bid with third party No Labels‘s unity ticket, has a 12 percentage point lead over Rep. David Trone (D-MD), 49% to 37%, who, as founder and co-owner of Total Wine & More, is self-funding his effort. Hogan is 14 points ahead of Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 50% to 36%, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.

For Senate Republicans’s campaign organization, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the poll underscores “why Democrats are panicking about Maryland.”

“Marylanders know Larry Hogan, and they’re eager to see him represent them in Washington the same way he did for eight years as an overwhelmingly popular governor,” NRSC spokesman Tate Mitchell told the Washington Examiner.

Another national Republican strategist said, “For Democrats to even have to be talking about Maryland at all is a major problem for them.”

That is because all of this election cycle‘s toss-up or lean Senate races are currently Democratic held or held by independents who caucus with Democrats. The toss-up races include the contest to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), in addition to those of Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who are seeking reelection. The lean-Democratic races include the contest to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), as well as those of Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).

But for University of Maryland government and politics associate professor David Karol, the poll was a political snapshot of the current situation and that is likely to change before November’s general election.

“The Democratic candidates, the two potential nominees, are not well known yet, and Gov. Hogan, of course, is very well known,” Karol told the Washington Examiner. “So that’s something that will change by Election Day. It’s also in fact the case that no one has really made the argument against Gov. Hogan, and he’s trying to do something very difficult now, which is extend his state politics brand that he built into national politics. He was successful in Maryland by repudiating [former President Donald] Trump by ducking the abortion issue. Now he’s going to be running on the ballot with Trump when there is an abortion vote.”

“The same poll showed that most Marylanders want a Democratic Senate and, if Hogan is elected, that’s really unlikely,” he said. “We’ve seen other cases like this. … Phil Bredesen was a popular Democratic governor [in Tennessee in 2018] and it was a Democratic year nationally, and he still lost to Marsha Blackburn. Even Taylor Swift couldn’t save him.”

Hogan campaign spokesman Mike Ricci agreed the term-limited governor is the underdog in his Senate race, regardless of which Democrat wins their party’s nomination and despite leaving after eight years in office with one of the country’s highest gubernatorial approval ratings of 77%.

“I would push back on the notion that it’s just because people know who he is,” Ricci told the Washington Examiner of the poll. “He led the state the way that he was elected to do, which was to work in a bipartisan way, to bring people together. He led the state through a number of crises, including, of course, the pandemic, and so he has a unique bond with Marylanders.”

Meanwhile, with Maryland voters poised to consider whether to protect abortion access in their state constitution, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee described a vote for Hogan as casting a ballot “to turn the Senate over to Republicans so they can pass a national abortion ban.”

“Democrats have won every statewide federal election in Maryland for 44 years, and 2024 will be no different,” DSCC spokeswoman Amanda Sherman Baity told the Washington Examiner.

Hogan’s abortion policies have already become important to his race because of two interviews he has provided in as many weeks.

“Would you vote for legislation that would guarantee the right to an abortion?” ABC affiliate WJLA-TV asked Hogan this week.

“I think that’s an issue we’ll have to address,” Hogan said.

“Surely you’ve thought about it,” WJLA-TV said.

“I’m not going to speculate on any issue or any piece of legislation that’s never been written,” he replied.

Ricci, with the Hogan campaign, repeated that the governor has “made clear” he is not for a national abortion ban, reiterating that although he personally opposes abortion, he “would not do anything to take those rights away from anyone.”

Hogan’s other political problem is his past criticism of Trump, emphasizing last week that he would not vote for the former president in the presidential election.

“Even in Maryland, there’s a Trumpy base,” Karol, the professor, said. “They’re not big enough for Hogan to win, but he can’t win without them. It’s a balancing act for him, and the Democrats’s goal is to just knock him off that tightrope.”

Hogan can find common ground with Trump supporters by addressing the issues of the “crisis” at the border, crime, particularly in the Washington, D.C., region, and taxes and the economy, per Ricci.

Hogan’s announcement cleared the Republican primary field. But Trone, who along with other top-tier candidate Alsobrooks, is in a competitive race for the Democratic nomination, was adamant he is the party’s “best shot” at protecting their Senate majority as the only contender who has won “tough” contests in GOP territory.

“With [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell [R-KY] recruiting Larry Hogan to join the race, voters are more energized than ever to vote blue this November,” Trone campaign spokeswoman Onotse Omoyeni told the Washington Examiner. “They don’t trust Larry to protect abortion rights or stand up for working families, and they certainly won’t hand him the keys to the U.S. Senate.”

Alsobrooks did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment.

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Trone, an older western Maryland white man who has been endorsed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and Alsobrooks, a younger black woman who has been endorsed by Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), have different regional and demographic appeals amid their policy similarities, Karol said.

“He’s been spending massively,” Karol said. “She only recently started to get on the air and not anything like the same level as far as I know. Now there’s time. The primary is not until the middle of May.”