Republicans are hoping to flip control of the Senate and White House in November, but in several key states, there are obstacles on the ballot alongside their candidates.

In the 2022 elections, abortion and controversial candidates sank Republican chances in several pivotal races, leading to a significant underperformance from GOP hopes of a “red wave.” Heading into election season, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in most polls, and the Senate map for November is favorable to Republicans, but in Florida, Montana, and North Carolina, different factors on the ballot could give Democrats a boost.

Florida

Republicans have dominated elections in the Sunshine State in recent years, winning every statewide elected office in 2022 by landslide margins, led by Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) nearly 20-point victory in the gubernatorial race.

For the presidential race, the CookPoliticalReport rates the state as “likely Republican,” and in Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-FL) reelection bid, it is also rated as “likely Republican,” but the Florida Supreme Court may have made the races closer.

The high court in Florida approved ballot measures attempting to enshrine abortion and recreational marijuana into the state constitution, meaning Trump and Scott will be on the ballot alongside matters that tend to motivate Democratic voters.

Last year in Ohio, ballot measures on both those topics won convincingly in a significant blow to the GOP in the Buckeye State. In Florida, the measures will need 60% of the vote to pass, more than the simple majority required in Ohio, where neither measure got to 60%.

Montana

Another abortion ballot measure could make its way before voters in Montana in November, as a bid to block the effort by the state’s attorney general was overturned by the state Supreme Court last month.

Activists seeking to enshrine abortion into the state constitution via a ballot initiative still have some steps before it appears before voters, such as collecting the necessary signatures, but if the measure is on the ballot, it could hurt Republican hopes of flipping one of the state’s Senate seats in November.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in November, with his seat being rated as a “toss-up” by the CookPoliticalReport. Abortion being on the ballot could help his odds of keeping his seat in a red state.

North Carolina

Democrats have failed to win the Tar Heel State in the presidential election since 2008, when then-Sen. Barack Obama did so, but the Biden campaign is looking to flip the state in pursuit of a second term, and the gubernatorial race could help them.

Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is facing Democratic North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein in the gubernatorial election in November, and the Republican has come under intense scrutiny for past comments.

The gubernatorial race, like the presidential race, is expected to be close in November. When Trump ran in 2016 and 2020, he narrowly beat his Democratic opponent in the state, but Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) also won in the gubernatorial race, including defeating an incumbent Republican in 2016.

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While Democrats have racked up wins in the gubernatorial race in the past, if Robinson continues to make headlines, it could drag down Trump, who won the state by less than 75,000 votes in 2020.

North Carolina is rated by the CookPoliticalReport as “lean Republican” in the presidential race and “lean Democratic” in the gubernatorial contest.