Republicans are poised to control the House after the 2024 general election despite recent shake-ups with resignations. 

Seventy-two races are predicted to be competitive this year, which is more than the 65 competitive races in the 2022 midterm election. At the moment, according to Roll Call, Republicans represent 15 seats rated as “Toss-up,” “Tilt Democratic,” or “Tilt Republican,” while Democrats control 13 of those seats. 

“It’s going to come down to these tossups, and Democrats would have to win around two-thirds of them to take the majority,” Erin Covey, the House analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the New York Times. 

Right now, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to gain control of the House after the special election to replace former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) flipped in favor of Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY). Come November, Democrats will need to win a number of competitive races while keeping control of some vulnerable seats in order to win the House. 

Competitive open races are typically easier to gain than races with well-funded incumbents with name recognition. Of the “Toss-Up” or “Tilt” districts, Democrats control four seats. California’s 47th Congressional District is now “vulnerable” after Katie Porter’s departure before her unsuccessful bid for the Senate. Michigan’s 7th District is also “vulnerable” as Rep. Elissa Slotkin is eyeing a Senate seat. 

Republican races are shifting as well. Nebraska’s 2nd District moved from “Lean Republican” to “Tilt Republican” as Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) faces a primary challenger in a suburban district that President Joe Biden won. 

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In Nevada, the presidential and Senate races are expected to be competitive. Former President Donald Trump would need to win the state by 5 percentage points in order to galvanize Republicans in House races. Nevada has not voted that far red since 1988, proving the challenge among newly drawn maps in the Silver State. The districts held by Reps. Susie Lee (D-NV), Dina Titus (D-NV), and Steven Horsford (D-NV) are thus in the “Likely Democratic” category, according to Roll Call.

Overall, according to the news outlet’s analysis, eight House races have become more favorable for Democrats in recent weeks, while four have become more favorable for Republicans.