A ruling from the Florida Supreme Court allowing a ballot referendum on abortion to move forward has Democrats fantasizing that they can pry the Sunshine State out of the Republican column for the first time in 12 years.
On Monday, the Florida Supreme Court ruled that the state’s six-week abortion ban can take effect, but it also ruled that a proposed state constitutional amendment to legalize abortion up to the point of viability will go before voters in November.
Despite their recent track record in the state, Democrats and President Joe Biden now seem to think that this referendum will put the state in play at the presidential level and could even offer the party a pick-up opportunity in the Senate.
“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given [Donald] Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” reads a memo from Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez.
But we can stash Democratic hopes of winning Florida right next to their pipe dream of turning Texas blue this year. As much as they might think the abortion referendum will put the state in play this November, Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) will both win their elections with ease, even as the referendum will likely do well. We only have to look to recent history for guidance.
In 2020, Trump won the state by a little more than 3% of the statewide vote total. But at the same time, a constitutional amendment to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, hardly a Republican policy position, passed with more than 61% of the vote.
In 2022, just months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) cruised to double-digit victories, cementing the state’s rightward swing, even as abortion was credited with giving Democrats a better-than-expected outcome in House and Senate races nationwide.
And last year in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is the lone remaining statewide officeholder from his party, voters overwhelmingly supported a ballot referendum with astonishingly broad language that legalized abortion statewide. The year before, with abortion dominating the airwaves, Republicans swept all statewide races by a comfortable margin. The state is not considered to be competitive at the presidential level, with Trump favored to win Ohio with relative ease, while Brown is considered to be the most vulnerable Democratic senator on the ballot this fall.
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This may seem counterintuitive, given that Republicans have always been the pro-life party, while Democrats are the party of abortion, but election after election has shown that voters have no problem separating party from policy when they make decisions on whom to vote for. The abortion referendum in Florida will secure majority support in November, but the state’s requirement that all constitutional amendments garner 60% support may hinder its passage.
Nonetheless, even if Florida voters legalize abortion in November, expect Trump and Scott to win their races handily. And the Biden campaign and the Democratic Party will burn millions on two races they have little hope of winning.