Recent polls showing low black and Hispanic support for the Democratic party has left many Democrat leaders and strategists sweating.
Former Clinton campaign strategist James Carville took to his podcast Carville’s classroom to share his concerns as the Democratic party loses popularity among younger people of color.
“I’ve been very vocal about this,” Carville said. “It’s horrifying our numbers among younger voters, particularly younger blacks, younger Latinos … younger people of color. Particularly males.”
A Gallup poll showed that the Democrats’ have dominated Republicans in black voters’ party-preference by nearly 20% in the past three years. The poll showed that 66% of black adults leaned or identified as Democrat and 19% identified as Republican. While the difference is still 47% in favor of Democrats; this is the lowest spread in 25 years. Change in support amongst black Americans for Democrats is noticeable — in 2020, polls showed 77% of black voters supporting Democrats, and just 11% identifying as Republicans.
As for Hispanic voters, those identifying or leaning towards Democrats was 47% in a recent poll — a drop by 10% since 2021. Multiple polls show Biden trailing behind Trump among Hispanic voters. A New York Times poll shows Trump leading Biden 46% to 40%, and a USA Today/Suffolk University Poll shows 39% of Hispanic voters supporting Trump and 34% aligned with Biden.
“These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023,” the Gallup poll read.
John Burn-Murdoch said the loss of young black voters is in part due to weakening ties to the civil rights era by the younger generation, but those who lived the era still strongly support the Democrat party.
As for Hispanics, Republican strategist Mike Madrid said Democrats fail with their messaging.
“Democrats cannot conceive that non-white voters are anything other than civil rights voters,” he said. “In their mind, all Latinos need to be talked to like farmworkers or the undocumented. Even though that’s less than 95% of us.”
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Carville fears that the voting patterns by black and Hispanic youth will be solidified if Trump is voted in, and it will likely impact voting behavior for this bloc for the next 35 years.
“We’re not going to convince under 30, under 35, ‘Oh, we really built a great country for you,’” he said. “You’re looking at this job market … I don’t think you’re going to buy that.”