Likely voters continue to prefer former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden, whose 2020 victory coalition appears to be breaking up.

In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shared with Secrets, Trump leads Biden 49%-41%, the same as its survey of likely voters last month.

But this time, Rasmussen highlighted the gap in Hispanic voters that favors Trump. The pollster said Latinos back Trump over Biden, 48%-37%. That is a significant change from 2020, when Hispanics backed Biden 59%-38%, according to Pew statistics.

In 2020, Biden also won Asian voters, and that margin has shifted. In 2020 he won Asians by a margin of 72%-28%, Pew said. Rasmussen now shows Trump leading 39%-36%.

In the last election, Biden also did well with black voters, 92%-8%. Rasmussen showed Biden’s lead cut to 48%-39%.

While those gaps are expected to turn in Biden’s favor as the election nears, the huge shift from 2020 is concerning to Democrats, who need a big minority advantage to win.

Trump is also doing better with independents. The analysis noted, “Trump benefits from both stronger partisan intensity and a double-digit advantage among independent voters. In a head-to-head matchup with Biden, Trump gets 83% of Republican votes, compared to Biden’s 74% among Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads with 46% to Biden’s 35%. These gaps are not significantly affected by the inclusion of RFK Jr., Stein or West on the ballot.”

The pollster noted that Trump keeps his lead with likely voters even when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and two others are added in. The poll appears to challenge others that show Kennedy is affecting the race.

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“The survey doesn’t show Kennedy with a large impact on the outcome. Nor is the margin significantly affected by the inclusion of Green Party candidate Jill Stein and former Harvard Professor Cornell West,” the analysis said.

Rasmussen added, “In a three-way match-up between Biden, Trump and RFK Jr., 44% would vote for Trump, 38% for Biden and 10% for Kennedy. In February, Kennedy had 12%. In a five-watch matchup, 45% would vote for Trump, 38% for Biden, nine percent (9%) for Kennedy, two percent (2%) for West and one percent (1%) for Stein.”