EXCLUSIVE — Democrat Will Rollins holds a narrow lead over 30-year incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), according to internal polling commissioned by the Rollins campaign and first shared with the Washington Examiner.
Rollins, a former counterterrorism prosecutor, leads Calvert by 1 point among voters in California’s 41st Congressional District, the survey found, as national Democrats look to flip the key House seat and take control of the lower chamber next year. Among likely voters in the district, 45% said they’d back Rollins compared to 44% who said they’d vote for Calvert. Another 9% remain undecided.
Internal polling is generally regarded with a degree of skepticism; however, the race is one of the most competitive of the 2024 election cycle. The two candidates squared off in 2022, with Calvert winning by less than 5 points.
A “challenger running slightly ahead of a long-time incumbent at this stage of an election cycle is rare, and indicative of a district that is looking for a new direction,” the Rollins campaign said in the polling memo.
The survey predicts roughly 37% of voters in the district will be registered Democrats compared to 38% who will be registered Republicans. But the campaign’s findings on independents, in particular, could prove pivotal in the race.
Of the 17% expected to be independent, 59% say they’d back Rollins compared to 26% who said the same for Calvert.
“We are building a campaign made up of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike who know that 30 years is far too long for anyone to serve in Congress, especially the career politicians who are using their office to enrich themselves at the expense of working people,” Rollins said in a statement.
Meanwhile, Calvert’s campaign has expressed confidence in its reelection chances, pointing to his last three election cycles that he has “won handily every time.”
“We’ve always known this was going to be a close race, but let’s not fool ourselves here,” a spokesperson for Calvert campaign told the Washington Examiner. “Last cycle, Rollins and his friends were pushing similar polls at the same point last cycle and lost big anyway. Rollins omitting his numbers on Biden and Newsom says a whole lot: voters aren’t buying their failed crime and border policies and it’s going to be a huge drag on him in November.”
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Calvert has served in Congress since 1993 and represents one of the most competitive districts heading into the November election. The district is rated as R+3 and is deemed to be a toss-up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The poll was conducted by David Binder Research and surveyed 600 likely voters, including 100 independents. The survey was conducted between May 1-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.