President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in a fight for seven swing states that appear to be in control of who will be the next president. But outside the Rust Belt and Sun Belt contests that have dominated everyone’s attention, Republicans and Democrats are both putting states no one expects to be competitive on their November wish list. The Washington Examiner looked at four contests where the parties are looking to flip the script and steal a win where no one expected they could.

As President Joe Biden’s campaign works to flip historic swing states such as Florida and North Carolina that have leaned into Republican policies, the campaign to reelect former President Donald Trump is also looking to expand its road map. 

The Trump campaign has said it is confident it can flip solid blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, and even the Democratic stronghold of New York. The former president sometimes calls New Jersey home and is making headway in convincing voters there to turn out for him in November.

Enthusiastic voters try to close the gap

Trump hosted a rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, a beach town on the Jersey Shore, where he drew crowds of 80,000 to 100,000 people last month. The visit marked his first campaign visit to the Garden State since 2020.

“We are witnessing tremendous momentum and enthusiasm from black and brown communities all over the country, even in blue states like New York and New Jersey,” Trump’s campaign said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

Since Biden took office, voters in New Jersey have been registering increasingly with the Republican Party. In 2020, New Jersey Democrats had an advantage of more than 1 million voters. Democrats’ advantage has since dwindled down to an advantage of a little more than 930,000 registered voters as of May 2024.

“It indicates a renewed enthusiasm about the party in some ways, and I think that’s a positive thing,” Chris Russell, a longtime Republican strategist in New Jersey, told the Washington Examiner. “But it’s still a significant hill to climb for any Republican statewide.”

“Oftentimes, the NJ GOP doesn’t get as much credit as they deserve for all the stuff that they’re doing trying to make a difference here in the state,” Republican Minority Whip in the New Jersey Assembly Brian Bergen told the Washington Examiner. “They’re increasing voter registration. Biden obviously makes it a lot easier for us because he’s such an unlikable president that he’s forcing many independent voters over to be Republicans.”

Bergen said he believes some of Biden’s unpopularity among New Jersey residents has also forced “some Democrats who may have been just kind of ‘Democrats In Name Only’” as well as independents to move their political affiliation to the right.

“They feel like their government is more out of touch than ever,” Bergen said. “They’re looking for an alternative and the Republicans are here to offer them an alternative, and people are starting to embrace that.”

Problems at home

Democrats have held on to a majority of both chambers for the past two decades, with Republicans representing the minority party in the Assembly since 2002 and the Senate since 2004. Democrats hold a 25-15 majority in the Senate and a 46-34 majority in the Assembly.

State Senate Minority Leader Anthony Bucco told the Washington Examiner affordability is one of the main issues affecting New Jerseyans. Multiple studies have consistently ranked New Jersey in the top 10 most expensive states to live in.

“A lot of times, my colleagues on the other side of the aisle will talk about affordability, but their actions never meet their words, and I think people are starting to pick up on that,” Bucco said.

New Jersey holds its legislative and gubernatorial races in odd-numbered years in which there are no congressional or presidential races. 

Russell believes that gives New Jersey voters a chance to think about issues affecting their state, not necessarily who they want to represent them in Washington, because in general or midterm election years, local candidates are “in the shadow of national politics.” That changes when the governor’s race is at the top of the ballot.

Successful Republicans have worn a home Jersey

In 2021, the gubernatorial race between former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli and Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) was close, with Ciattarelli producing higher numbers than expected. He garnered 48% of the vote to Murphy’s 51.2%.

“Certainly 2021 was a very strong year for Republicans. It kind of defied a lot of expectations that the gubernatorial race came close. We picked up seven legislative seats, and hundreds of county and local seats moved to the Republican side,” Russell said. He added that Republicans have not produced as strong of a turnout in 2022 or 2023 as they did that year, which could prove Russell’s theory on the timing of races.

Russell, who worked as a top adviser on Ciattarelli’s campaign, said the enthusiasm surrounding 2021 and the legislative pickups could have been due to Ciattarelli himself, who campaigned as “a lifelong Jersey guy.”

“Obviously I’m biased, but a lot of credit in 2021 goes to Jack Ciattarelli and the kind of campaign he ran,” Russell said. “He ran the candidate he was and to get that level of enthusiasm for a statewide candidate in New Jersey, and that trickled down out for sure.”

Being a “Jersey guy” may be the key in the state. Bergen, Bucco, and Russell all said one of the reasons for former Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s success in New Jersey was his persona as a “Jersey guy,” as well as his leadership in the state at the time, notably after Hurricane Sandy. 

“His initial response to that storm certainly catapulted his popularity,” Russell said. “He was a person who was a leader who governed the state through a difficult time, similar to George Bush after 9/11.”

“I think that was a significant reason why that 2013 reelection was kind of easy as it was, and certainly at the time, he was gearing up to be a national candidate. There’s no secret here that there’s a presidential ambition heading into 2013,” he added.

Breaking with Washington

Still, Chrisie, who was a two-term governor from 2010-2018, began to struggle in the state once he began to align himself with national Republicans as he launched a presidential campaign in 2016. 

“If, as a legislator, you’re focused on what’s going on in Washington, you’re losing sleep on what’s happening in your backyard,” Bucco said. “And people here in New Jersey are pretty smart.”

Despite entering his second term well received after pulling the state through Hurricane Sandy, Christie also left office with low ratings after Bridgegate and Beachgate left his reputation in the state tarnished.

Bucco pointed to a pattern related to New Jersey governors and who controls the White House. 

“It’s a pretty clear pattern: If the Democrats are in control of the White House, the Republicans do better here. If the Republicans control the White House, the Democrats seem to do better here,” Bucco said. “Here in New Jersey, the party that is out of power really does better.”

Since 1992, New Jersey has voted only for Democrats for president, and it’s unlikely it will switch now and give its 14 electoral votes to Trump. 

Seven of the last eight senators from New Jersey have been Democrats, save for GOP Sen. Jeffrey Chiesa, who was appointed by Christie after the death of Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg. 

“Nonetheless, the fact that there was a close governor’s race in 2021, the fact that registration is moving in the right direction, certainly should give hope to Republicans in New Jersey,” Russell said. “There can be some wins just ahead of us.”

Statewide races are also expensive in New Jersey because candidates must buy into both the pricey New York and Philadelphia TV markets because New Jersey, sandwiched between the two cities, does not have its own market. 

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“You know, the tried and true way to reach voters in the state, from an advertising standpoint, are through those mediums, and they just happen to be ridiculously expensive,” Russell said. “If you cannot raise significant money, you have a really difficult time getting your message through.”

“I don’t subscribe to the ‘woe is me’ financial limitations or the map design or the voter registration or any of that. The bottom line is winners win,” Bergen said. “If you want to win badly enough, you put together a strategy that gets you there.”