Former President Donald Trump has a slight lead over President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, the key battleground state Biden needs to win to ensure reelection, according to a new survey.
A Marist poll released on Wednesday showed Trump with a 2 percentage point advantage over Biden, 47% to 45%, among registered voters in the Keystone State.
Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered 3% support, while both Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein received 1%.
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Regarding independents, the voting bloc most likely to decide the election, Trump again leads Biden by 2 percentage points, 42% to 40%. Kennedy pulls in higher support at 8%, with West and Stein each receiving 3%.
The slight disadvantage with independents is a worrying sign for Biden, who won the voting bloc in 2020 52% to 44% against Trump, according to national exit polls.
Biden still has a lead with black voters against Trump in Pennsylvania, 68% to 23%, but 2020 exit polls showed he pulled 92% of the black vote compared to 7% who supported Trump nationally.
The president leads Trump by 2 percentage points with voters under the age of 45, 46% to 44%.
Both Biden and Trump have high negative ratings with Pennsylvanians. More than half of the participants surveyed, 55%, have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 42% have a favorable one. Similarly, 53% had an unfavorable view of Trump, and 43% had a positive opinion of him.
“Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
Pennsylvania is also one of the states at the center of control over the Senate. Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is defending his seat, which the GOP is hoping to flip, against Republican David McCormick.
Casey leads McCormick 52% to 46%, according to the Marist poll. Nearly half of Keystone State residents, 46%, have a favorable opinion of Casey, while 31% have an unfavorable view of him.
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As for McCormick, 33% of residents have a favorable view of the Republican, while 31% have an unfavorable view.
About a quarter of residents, 23%, have either never heard of Casey or are unsure how to rate the incumbent senator. In contrast, 37% have either never heard of McCormick or are unsure how to rate him.
The poll surveyed 1,277 Pennsylvania adults from June 3-6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.