A new report shows 45% of people expect that an economic downturn is on the horizon, an issue President Joe Biden’s campaign has downplayed going into the 2024 election.

The Consumer Spending & Saving Index from MassMutual indicates the number of people predicting a recession in the next year is up 8% from last quarter. 

Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have both said a recession this year is unlikely. Both policymakers have also been careful to give disclaimers surrounding economic predictions.

At a Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference in late March, Powell said the path to reducing inflation is “sometimes bumpy, so the question is are those just bumps or something more than bumps? … Our position is we don’t know.”

Powell went on to say that “there’s always a sort of unconditional probability of a recession. … If you look through history, it’s not possible to rule out a recession for a long period of time.”

According to the report, 42% of those surveyed named inflation as the biggest factor affecting their finances, up from 37% last quarter.

The report comes as the six-month countdown looms large for November’s presidential election. 

While the Biden administration continues to tout “Bidenomics’” ability to “build our economy from the middle out and the bottom up,” millions of voters have yet to be convinced by the message. As voters grapple with a higher cost of living, the latest polls show voters trust former President Donald Trump more than President Joe Biden to handle the economy and inflation by a double-digit margin. Up to 80% of voters in battleground states say the economy is a top issue for them. 

In 2024, the percentage listing inflation as the top financial problem reached an all-time high, while 78% of voters reported living paycheck to paycheck. 

While inflation has come down from a peak of 9.1% in 2022, persistent high prices for food and gas continue to drive fears about an imminent recession. 

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In December 2020, the average price for a gallon of gas was $2.28. Last month, drivers spent an average of $3.73 for a gallon of gas. 

The Consumer Spending & Saving Index report draws from a survey covering a nationally representative sample of 1,000 people and an additional sample of 500 Massachusetts residents.