The Senate race in Maryland between former Gov. Larry Hogan and Prince George’s County Executive Democrat Angela Alsobrooks is now evenly tied.
According to a new poll from AARP commissioned by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, Hogan and Alsobrooks are neck-and-neck, polling at 46% each. The two are running to replace Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), who is retiring.
When broken down by voter demographics, Hogan is polling 2 percentage points ahead of Alsobrooks among voters over the age of 50. There is also a large gender gap: Alsobrooks polls 8 points higher with women than men, who preferred Hogan by 10 points.
“Given Hogan’s support among Democrats, and the number of voters who still don’t have a firm opinion of who Angela Alsobrooks is, she has more upside potential in the race,” Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward, said, noting it is “absolutely too close to call.”
“It would not be a surprise to see most of the undecided [voters] in this race break to Alsobrooks by the time Election Day comes,” Ward continued.
If the poll from the Senate race stands, the political tide could be shifting as Maryland is a deeply blue state: All but one of their eight House seats are represented by Democrats, and the state has not elected a Republican to represent it in the Senate since 1987. President Joe Biden won the state by 33 points in 2020.
At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris is polling far ahead of former President Donald Trump in the presidential race despite Alsobrooks lagging compared to Harris in the polls. Harris is polling at 64% to Trump’s 32% in a head-to-head matchup. Harris also leads Trump with every single demographic group other than Republicans.
During his campaign thus far, Hogan has tried to distance himself from Trump, all while receiving the ex-president’s endorsement. Meanwhile, Alsobrooks has tied herself to Harris’s momentum.
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Hogan is nevertheless seen favorably in the state, with the poll finding a 59% favorability rating, including 57% among Democrats.
In the AARP survey, 1,258 likely voters in Maryland were interviewed between Aug. 14 and Aug. 20 about the 2024 Senate and presidential races, and its margin of error was plus or minus 4 points.