Democrats looking to keep Arizona blue are counting on abortion rights to carry them this fall, a bet that might not pay the same dividends it did two years ago.
Across the state, abortion rights activists are gathering signatures to place a measure on the ballot putting abortion protections in the state’s constitution. In doing so, organizers hope this will galvanize Arizonans to vote blue at the polls in a state where about one-third of registered voters are independents.
“There’s a large contingent of independent voters here that we feel confident will come to our side and are supportive of the issue,” Cheryl Bruce, the campaign manager for the Arizona for Abortion Access Coalition, told Politico.
However, the news outlet found that abortion referendums do not give Democrats the voter boost that they are looking to obtain. Abortion rights initiatives outperform Democratic candidates on the same ballots, highlighting that people who vote in favor of abortion rights also may vote for a Republican candidate. In Arizona, only a quarter of voters listed abortion as their top issue going into the 2024 general election.
Arizona for Abortion Access Coalition is a group of reproductive rights organizations leading the signature collection sites. They will need to collect 5%, at least 383,923, of registered Arizona voters’ signatures by July 3, 2024, in order to see the referendum on the ballot.
The Arizona Abortion Access Act would create a “fundamental right” to an abortion “anytime before viability,” the point at which a fetus would have a ”significant” chance of survival outside of the womb.
“Even though this is a purple state, this is not a swing issue for us,” Senate candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) said. “It is solidly a pro-abortion-rights state.”
Kari Lake, Gallego’s opponent who is also eyeing Sen. Krysten Sinema’s (I-AZ) seat this November, said she supported the state’s 1864 total abortion ban when she ran for governor in 2022. Now she has tried to stray away from commenting on the matter, but she said she believes Arizonans will settle on abortion restrictions up to 15-24 weeks.
“It’s probably going to be the 15th week or whatever is in this ballot initiative,” Lake told NBC News. “I trust the people of Arizona to vote on this, if that’s what happens, and get this right.”
Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes said she was elected from enthusiasm surrounding protecting abortion rights in the Grand Canyon State. She won by razor-thin margins of only a few hundred votes.
“I was elected because of Dobbs,” Mayes said. “My campaign was turbocharged the moment the decision came down, and I really think it made the difference in my race.”
Conservatives looking to maintain their thin majority in the state’s legislature are working to keep an abortion referendum off the ballot, recognizing that independents’ support of abortion rights could hurt them in the 2024 general election.
“If that issue gets onto the ballot, it is going to drive out the Democratic base, and potentially we lose the [state] House and Senate,” Republican state Sen. Shawnna Bolick said.
Last week, Democratic state Sen. Eva Burch shocked the Senate floor when she announced her plans to get an abortion in Arizona.
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“My greatest hope for this entire scenario that I’m in right now is that I’m able to get people engaged in the political process,” Burch said, adding that “the only thing that’s going to improve that situation is flipping the legislature.”
A similar ballot measure was proposed during the 2022 midterm election. The referendum failed to gain enough signatures from registered voters.