President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in their general election rematch, but neither candidate has clinched his party’s nomination.
Biden and Trump are still short the required delegates to become their party’s presumptive presidential nominee. But after they win the Tuesday night primaries, they are expected to clear the threshold to do so comfortably.
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By Tuesday night, Trump will have surpassed the 1,215 delegates needed to become the GOP nominee. He hovers at 1,075 delegates, while Biden, at 1,866 delegates, will also surpass the 1,968 delegates needed to become the Democratic nominee, setting the stage for a repeat of the 2020 election.
Trump easily outlasted more than a dozen Republican primary challengers, with the last one, his first ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, dropping out of the race the day after Super Tuesday.
Biden never faced serious Democratic challengers, though Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) made some headlines in New Hampshire, and author Marianne Williamson suspended then unsuspended her campaign when she won 3% of the vote during the Michigan primary.
Neither Phillips nor Williamson’s efforts will block Biden from the nomination.
The Biden-Trump rematch is a feat that hasn’t happened in American history since 1956 when former Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated former Democratic Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson for the second time. The first time was in 1952.
The presidential rematch has only happened in U.S. history seven times. Before the Eisenhower-Stevenson battles, former Republican President William McKinley and Democrat William Jennings Bryan faced off in 1896 and 1900. Bryan lost both times.
But much has changed in the 68 years since the Eisenhower-Stevenson race.
Trump and Biden are the two oldest presidential nominees in American history. The American public has long voiced their weariness toward a rematch, and combined with an unusually early general election season, 2024 could be one of the most exhausting election cycles in recent years.
“The stage is set for what is possibly the longest general election season in American history,” said David Capen, president of Capen Consulting. “Trump and Biden have very different ideologies, and both are on up there in age. Their campaigns will be more about mobilizing voters and less to do with persuasion of what we used to call ‘swing voters’ — they don’t really exist anymore when it comes to presidential politics. It will be a marathon, not a sprint, between now and November.”
In many ways, Trump is running to avenge his 2020 loss to Biden. But, as he battles 91 criminal charges across four cases, with two of the cases related to alleged attempts to overturn the election, the former president will need to avoid a felony conviction, which could cost him just enough votes to lose to Biden again. Trump is hoping to delay the trials until after the November election.
Trump will also need to convince the small but still sizable number of Haley supporters, many of whom are independents and moderate Republicans, to vote for the GOP ticket after a bruising primary season.
But Republican leaders claim Trump will prevail among Republicans who are skeptical of the former president.
“Do I think that we’re going to be missing major coalitions or major groups of votes come November because of what happened in the last several weeks? I don’t,” said chairman of the Wisconsin GOP Brian Schimming. “I feel like it’s going to come together pretty well.”
Meanwhile, Biden is hoping to convince concerned voters that at 81 and the oldest serving U.S. president, he still has the stamina to serve in office for another four years.
The centrist group No Labels is attempting a third-party unity ticket to give voters another option, but it is unclear which candidates would lead the charge. Haley declined to run with the group, as have other potential candidates including Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), and former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan.
Biden’s reelection has already begun dropping millions of dollars in ad buys and hosting campaign rallies, as has Trump’s campaign.
On Saturday, the Biden campaign announced a $30 million ad buy targeting voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—the crucial battleground states that will decide the election.
In the kickoff “For You” ad, Biden directly addresses his age and contrasts his campaign with Trump’s.
“Look, I’m no young guy. That’s no secret,” Biden says in the ad. “But here’s the deal: I understand how to get things done for the American people.”
The Trump campaign quickly released a “Not a Young Guy” ad pointing to Biden’s age but in a derogatory manner, showing the president stumbling multiple times.
“President Biden and President Trump’s record is such a stark difference,” said Wayne King, president of Old North Strategies and a former chief of staff to former North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows. “I believe voters’ constant economic impacts including high interest rates, high grocery prices, and many other factors will impact this election.”
Biden is facing high disapproval ratings heading into the general election, plus an economy that is still rebounding from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing inflation-related price increases.
Republicans have slammed Biden over these issues as they seek to retake the White House and the Senate while maintaining their hold over the House. Still, Democrats are hoping that reproductive access will hobble Republicans once again in the first presidential election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022.