A new survey of likely voters released on Wednesday shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied in Virginia, a dramatic turn in a state that went blue by 10 points in 2020.
The poll from the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College showed Biden and Trump at 42% each among Virginians. But when other candidates are included in the survey Biden takes a slight advantage, 40% to Trump’s 38%. Although, that figure is within the poll’s 4.24% margin of error.
This marks Trump’s best showing in the Roanoke College Poll to date. A previous poll from the college released days before Super Tuesday showed Biden leading Trump 47% to 43%. One caveat is that Nikki Haley was still challenging Trump for the GOP nomination prior to Super Tuesday.
Biden easily carried Virginia in 2020 with 54% of the vote to Trump’s 44%.
Just 2% of likely voters said they are undecided, while 14% said they would vote for a non-Biden or Trump candidate in a two-way race. In a five-way race, 20% of voters said they would vote for a non-Biden or Trump candidate.
Among those voters who said they would vote for another candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 8%, Jill Stein 3%, and Cornel West 1%, while 8% said they would vote for other.
Blue-leaning Virginia has voted for Democrats in the presidential election since former President Barack Obama flipped the state in 2008.
But when current Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) flipped the governor’s mansion in 2021 it gave Republicans hope that the Old Dominion could be in play in 2024. Virginia has long been seen as a bellwether state that tracks the mood of the nation.
The Trump campaign told GOP donors earlier this month that Virginia and Minnesota could flip back to the GOP, though Biden campaign officials dismissed the remarks.
Yet a Roanoke College expert gave some credence to the Trump campaign’s claims.
“These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November,” said Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “But five months is an eternity in politics. This tie or two-point lead seems dramatic, but they are within the margin of error of the results of the February 2024 and November 2023 Roanoke College Polls. Still, it seems that Trump is narrowing Biden’s lead, which has all but disappeared.”
In a warning sign for Biden, those who participated in the survey were more likely to view the Trump years as mostly good for the country at 44%, while 33% said the Trump years were mostly bad. In contrast, 25% viewed the Biden years as mostly good, while 47% said the Biden years were mostly bad.
Republicans are also more enthusiastic about the Trump years, with 87% seeing them as mostly good, while only 50% of Democrats said the Biden years were mostly good.
Biden’s job approval remains at 35%, while Youngkin’s job approval is at 52% and Congress’s job approval is at 19%. Biden’s 61% disapproval rating remains at an all-time Roanoke College Poll disapproval high from February.
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Participants cited the economy as the most important issue at 44%, followed by immigration at 14%, abortion at 13%, foreign affairs at 8%, and crime at 5%.
The poll interviewed 711 likely voters in Virginia between May 12 and May 21.