President Joe Biden appears to have stopped his bleeding in the 2024 election polls, likely helped by indications the economy is also bouncing back.
In a just-released Emerson College Polling survey, the president’s approval rating increased a point to 42%, and his disapproval rating fell 5, to 46% from 51%. His bumbled handling of the border crisis, however, appears to be blocking a bigger poll recovery.
In a head-to-head challenge with his likely election foe, former President Donald Trump, Biden has caught up. In the new survey, Trump has a slight edge, 46%-45%.
“Since December, Trump’s support decreased one point from 47% to 46%, while Biden’s increased two points from 43% to 45%,” the poll analysis said.
The change appears to be due to an increase in support for Biden among independent voters and an improving economic forecast.
“Biden’s approval among independent voters has seen a four-point improvement since December, rising from 33% to 37%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of the poll. “Although still underwater, this reflects a positive shift.”
The monthly poll also found that voters aren’t as concerned about Biden’s mishandling of the economy as they were in December, and that has helped the president level off.
“Voters who are most concerned about the economy continue to break for Trump (52%) over Biden (36%). However, in the December national poll, voters most concerned about the economy broke for Trump 60% to 30%, a 14-point difference,” Kimball said.
Biden’s handling of the border crisis and immigration policy continues to dog him, bad news since the matter is starting to challenge the economy as the top concern on voters’ minds. “Voters who are most concerned about immigration continue to break for Trump over Biden by a wide margin, 81% to 14%,” the survey analysis said.
Though changes from December’s poll are small, the results may indicate Biden’s bad numbers have bottomed out just as the 2024 campaign kicks into high gear and the president readies for the first big contest in South Carolina.
Kimball added that the change shows Democrats are getting behind Biden. “Biden has successfully strengthened his support among Democratic primary voters, with undecided voters decreasing from 30% to 19% and his share of support increasing from 63% to 72%,” Kimball said.
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He also found that younger voters have hopped on the Biden bus. Support of those under 40 years old has increased to 66% from 52% in December.
On the Republican side, Trump remains very strong. He beats former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley 73%-19% nationally. Even better for the former president, 53% of Republicans want Haley to drop out of the race and clear the decks for Trump to fight Biden on his own.