Biden campaign downplays polling for replacement in internal memo – Washington Examiner

President Joe Biden‘s campaign remains confident he has a path to reelection, with his “clearest” stepping stones back to the White House this November being Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In a memo obtained by the Washington Examiner, Biden campaign co-chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez acknowledged “increased anxiety” after the president’s debate against former President Donald Trump last month. But the pair contended it has not been followed by “a drastic shift in vote share.”

“The movement we have seen, while real, is not a sea-change in the state of the race — while some of this movement was from undecided voters to Trump, much of the movement was driven by historically Democratic constituencies moving to undecided,” O’Malley Dillon and Chavez Rodriguez wrote. “These voters do not like Donald Trump. In internal polling, our post-debate net favorability is 20 percentage points higher than Trump’s among these voters. These voters have always been core persuasion targets for the campaign and we have a very real path to consolidating their support since they are not considering Trump as an alternative.”

At the same time, O’Malley Dillon and Chavez Rodriguez conceded Biden was not ahead in the so-called blue wall states, describing polling as “within the margin-of-error.”

The Biden campaign did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment on a New York Times report Thursday that the team is privately polling how Vice President Kamala Harris would perform against Trump if Biden does heed calls for him to stand down as the 2024 Democratic nominee.

But publicly in the memo, the campaign dismissed “hypothetical polling of alternative nominees” as “always … unreliable,” particularly because those “surveys do not take into account the negative media environment that any Democratic nominee will encounter.”

In addition to criticizing a “fragmented media environment,” which, they argued, has created difficulties for their message to “break through,” O’Malley Dillon and Chavez Rodriguez underscored the importance of underlining Trump’s priorities for his own second term, including policy positions proposed by the Heritage Foundation through Project 2025.

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“Our internal data suggests vote choice isn’t tied to perceptions of the president’s age,” the duo wrote. “Instead, people are continuing to vote on the issues they care about — which are also the very issues we are winning on. Voters turned on the debate knowing Joe Biden was old, but having forgotten how much they dislike Donald Trump. They left the debate with a fresh reminder of how extreme a second Trump term would be and how much they dislike him.”

“Bottom line: No one is denying that the debate was a setback,” they added. “But Joe Biden and this campaign have made it through setbacks before. We are clear eyed about what we need to do to win. And we will win by moving forward, unified as a party, so that every single day between now and election day we focus on defeating Donald Trump.”

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