Biden could receive down-ballot boosts in November from more popular Democrats – Washington Examiner

President Joe Biden faces political headwinds with a public that is not excited about this November’s general election.

But as Biden starts to sharpen his rhetoric regarding former President Donald Trump to an electorate that has become somewhat desensitized to his predecessor, the president could be boosted by down-ballot Democratic candidates and measures, if voters do not split their tickets.

A Pew Research Center poll published this week found that about a quarter of Americans (26%) dislike both Biden and Trump, with younger adults aged 18 to 29 years old more likely to be double negative respondents (41%). But with most Democrats campaigning for the U.S. Senate in 2024 presidential battleground states outperforming Biden in their respective races and a couple of their prospective Republican opponents providing fresh faces for his repeated warnings about Trump, Biden could be helped by down-ballot candidates and measures, particularly those related to abortion.

One example includes third-term Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), who had a five percentage point lead over likely Republican opponent David McCormick in an Emerson College poll last week. Meanwhile, Trump has, on average, less than a point’s edge over Biden in the Keystone State.

There is a similar dynamic in Wisconsin, where two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) was three points ahead of likely Republican opponent Eric Hovde in a separate Emerson College poll last week, whereas Trump has an average point advantage over Biden in the Badger State.

Democratic strategists underscore the synergy and coordination between the Biden campaign and battleground state Democratic parties, even in Arizona and Michigan, where, while front-runner Democratic candidates Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) already hold federal office, they are not incumbents.

That coordination between the Biden campaign and the Democratic state parties, which includes shared fundraising and spending on, for instance, ads and office space, is poised to deepen after the primaries.

“While MAGA Republicans across the country have spent the past four years running and losing on the same extreme, unpopular vision for this country that will once again lose Donald Trump the election this November, Democrats up and down the ballot are unified behind President Biden’s agenda to make sure everyone has a fair shot, safeguard our freedoms and democracy, and move America forward,” Democratic National Committee spokeswoman Rhyan Lake told the Washington Examiner.

Down-ballot Democratic candidates with Republican opponents who have close ties to Trump could also be a boon for Biden. Kari Lake in Arizona could be the most notable one, but another is North Carolina GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson, with the president expected to be in the Tar Heel State next week.

“Trump and Robinson are both MAGA extremists who are running on the same unpopular platform of outlawing abortion, threatening our democracy, and attacking public schools and teachers,” DNC chairman Jaime Harrison wrote in a statement shortly after Robinson’s nomination this month.

But Robinson campaign spokesman Mike Lonergan countered that the only “extremist” in the race is Democratic nominee Josh Stein, contending to the Washington Examiner that Stein would turn North Carolina into a sanctuary state for illegal immigrants and is backed by “far-left radicals” who want to defund the police.

“When it comes to North Carolina, it’s hard to tell who is a bigger drag on who — Biden on Josh Stein, or Josh Stein on Biden — and their awkward game of ‘hide and go seek’ tells you everything you need to know about how Democrats view this race,” Republican Governors Association spokeswoman Courtney Alexander added.

For another Republican strategist, Robinson could assist the GOP in North Carolina’s Greenville-anchored 1st Congressional District, which is currently represented by Rep. Don Davis (D-NC).

“It has a high black population and Robinson being on the ticket will help us with minority voters there,” the strategist said.

At the same time, House campaigns could additionally aid Biden. In an earlier interview with the Washington Examiner, Adam Hollier, a black Michigan Democrat who is trying to primary Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) in Detroit‘s 13th Congressional District, argued he could increase minority voter turnout for the president in his battleground state.

Enthusiasm tends to come from the top of the ticket, instead of down the ballot, according to Middlebury College politics professor Bert Johnson.

“The exception might be if a local candidate for office, say, an incumbent governor, has a robust and well-established turnout operation from which the national candidates could benefit, but such cases aren’t the norm,” Johnson told the Washington Examiner.

Simultaneously, there is a “lot of unhappiness” within both political parties, per Rutgers University history, media studies, and journalism professor David Greenberg, and margins will matter this election cycle.

“Last I checked the number of independents was at either a historic high or at least a very high percentage,” Greenberg said. “I would like to see a lot more polling and reporting on what independents are thinking these days.”

Regardless, down-ballot abortion measures have amplified Democratic campaigns since the Supreme Court repealed Roe v. Wade in 2022, with challenges to mifepristone and in vitro fertilization perpetuating the issue’s press coverage.

At the moment, only Maryland and New York have abortion measures on their ballots. Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin could as well, depending on whether they receive enough support or can withstand different legal challenges.

Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America state public affairs director Kelsey Pritchard argued that Democrats are disillusioned to think abortion measures on the ballot will propel them to victory.

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“In states where abortion will be on the ballot, Republicans have the opportunity to expose how extreme the proposed amendments are and be abundantly clear about their stance on life,” Pritchard told the Washington Examiner.

National Right to Life president Carol Tobias, who asserted voters will be more concerned with the economy and immigration, continued, “What difference does it make if it’s 13 weeks or 14 weeks or 15 weeks? That doesn’t really impact anybody. Most abortions are done before that anyway. So let’s just look at the reasons for abortion and see which ones where we could pass into law that would still protect most babies.”

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