Biden holds 4-point lead in seven 2020 battleground states: Poll

President Joe Biden is leading in seven 2020 battleground states in a new survey, despite former President Donald Trump’s overall lead in a head-to-head matchup in 2024.

Biden holds a 4-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan among those “who said they were sure to vote” in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday. Despite Biden’s state leads, the poll showed Trump has a 2-point lead in a matchup with the president, 38% to 36%.

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The president’s lead in the battleground states comes after a November New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters found that Biden trailed Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — the best showing for Trump in a national poll since leaving office.

The changes in battleground leads from poll to poll likely indicate that the race between Trump and Biden will come down to a small number of voters.

About 6 in 10 respondents to the poll said they would prefer a third choice and were not satisfied with the two-party system. When third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is thrown into a three-way contest with Biden and Trump, Trump’s lead widened to a 5-point advantage, 36% to 31% for Biden and 16% for Kennedy.

That section of the poll reflects the outcome that Democratic lawmakers and allies are concerned about heading into the 2024 election. Many have accused third-party groups of having an agenda to take away voters from Biden and aid a GOP victory, which groups such as No Labels have adamantly denied.

Trump, the front-runner in the Republican primary, is facing a string of legal cases at the state and federal levels. Some polls have recorded GOP voters stating that they do not care about the outcome of Trump’s criminal trials, while others say it will influence their vote in the election. In the Reuters poll, some 31% of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony crime.

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The former president is leading in several policy areas that are most important to voters, with 45% of respondents saying Trump is the better candidate for the economy and 42% saying he is the best candidate for crime. The poll found 54% of respondents agreed that “immigration is making life harder for native-born Americans,” and a similar share said Trump was the best equipped to handle the issue.

The poll, conducted online from Dec. 5-11, surveyed 4,411 U.S. adults nationwide with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.