As of Wednesday, North Carolina’s state board of elections reported that through Tuesday, black voter turnout is at 38.21%, and a total of 17.44% of ballots cast early and by mail are from black voters. For the entire 2020 election, black voters made up 18.7% of ballots cast, meaning the demographic is currently underperforming, but a report from Politico has some Democrats expressing hope they can make up ground with the final days of early voting along with Election Day voting.

“The campaign needs bigger Election Day turnout in North Carolina than they got in 2020,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic data consultant, told the outlet. “Because of the pandemic, because of the expectation of vote-mode switching, that’s not unrealistic.”

Former President Donald Trump won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, the only state rated as a “toss up” this year that he won in both of his previous presidential bids.

Former President Barack Obama, in 2008, was the last Democrat to win the presidential election in the Tar Heel State, when turnout among black voters surged to help elect the country’s first black president. Vice President Kamala Harris, who would be the second black and first Asian American and woman president if elected, is hoping to see black voter turnout surge and boost her to the White House.

In 2008, 73% of black voters turned out to vote, making up 22.3% of all ballots cast in the state Obama won. Four years later, Obama narrowly lost to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the state when 70% of black voters turned out to vote, and the demographic made up 23.1% of all ballots cast in North Carolina.

When former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton faced off against Trump in 2016, black voter turnout dropped significantly to only 64%, and the demographic only made up 20.7% of ballots cast in the Tar Heel State, as Trump went on to win the state and the White House. In 2020, black voter turnout moved back up to 68%, making up 18.7% of the votes cast that year, when Trump defeated Biden in the state — but not in the overall Electoral College.

Another warning sign for Democratic hopes of flipping North Carolina blue is in one of the state’s most populous counties, Mecklenburg County, where Charlotte is located. A report from Axios shows that voter turnout so far is below 2020 levels, in a heavily Democratic part of the state that could be key for Harris to have any chance at winning North Carolina.

Overall, state data show that in-person early voting is up compared to 2020, but overall, early voting is down because of fewer absentee ballots being utilized in 2024. The coronavirus pandemic popularized the use of mail-in voting, but with the pandemic over, voters are likely more comfortable returning to either early or Election Day in-person voting. The full turnout figures will not be known in North Carolina until polls close in the Tar Heel State on Tuesday.

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The Cook Political Report has rated North Carolina as a “toss up,” alongside six other states, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan.

In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump leads Harris, 48.7%-47.7%, in the Tar Heel State.