Bob Menendez heading into 2024 with the political and legal battle of a lifetime

Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-NJ) federal indictments opened the door to numerous primary challengers and whispers of interest from potential Republican candidates.

Federal prosecutors have accused Menendez and his wife, Nadine, of illegally using the senator’s position as the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to peddle influence with donors and benefit the Egyptian government in exchange for cash, gold bars, and other valuables. In October, he was also charged with operating as an unregistered foreign agent on behalf of Egypt.

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Menendez, who was required to relinquish his Foreign Relations Committee chairmanship after the September indictment, has dismissed the charges as part of a larger “smear campaign” against him. He has vowed to fight the charges and has pleaded not guilty in both cases.

The three-term senator has said he will not resign despite calls from his Democratic colleagues for him to step down, with Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) even pushing for expulsion. While he has predicted he will still be New Jersey’s senior senator at the end of this ordeal, he has not formally launched his 2024 reelection bid.

Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) specifically announced his candidacy in response to Menendez’s refusal to step down, though he is not the senator’s only primary challenger. New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy, the wife of Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ), launched her bid for Menendez’s seat in mid-November.

The Garden State’s first lady, 58, was one of the Democratic names that began to emerge as a possible Menendez challenger after his first indictment in September. A source familiar told the Washington Examiner at the time that the first lady had been fielding calls from state and national Democrats suggesting she throw her hat in the ring.

Tammy Murphy was a financier before becoming a homemaker and has been described by those close to her as extremely involved in her husband’s administration. Several Democratic operatives told her they believe she will perform well with suburban women, a critical constituency in the state.

She will need to coalesce enough support in a crowded primary field in order to reach general election voters in a state dominated by Democrats for decades. The party has won most statewide races since the late 1970s, with one notable recent exception being former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican who served two terms.

Thus, the winner of the Democratic primary is expected also to win the general election unless they are a weakened candidate.

Menendez slammed the Murphys for getting in the race, accusing them of turning on him after his federal indictment for “personal” gain.

Menendez once survived separate federal bribery charges when in 2017 a federal judge declared a mistrial after a jury deadlocked on whether he was guilty of selling his political influence to a wealthy Florida eye doctor in exchange for luxury vacations and campaign contributions. Menendez mounted a successful political comeback and won a third term as senator in 2018.

This time around, Menendez is displaying that same sense of defiance.

The embattled senator issued a heated statement against his former political allies, who had supported Menendez until his latest indictment. He warned that Tammy Murphy’s entry into the race would open her up to criticism of her husband’s gubernatorial record on issues like taxes and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“When Phil Murphy rushed to judgment and called on me to resign, it was clear he had a personal, vested interest in doing so at the expense of core democratic principles — the presumption of innocence and due process,” Menendez said.

“Gov. Murphy has said he won’t appoint his wife to the seat, but why would he since there was never a need to?” his statement continued. “They believe they have to answer to nobody, but I am confident that the people of New Jersey will push back against this blatant maneuver at disenfranchisement.”

While Menendez doesn’t have anywhere near majority support among Democratic primary voters, there is a chance, albeit small, that he could squeak out a win in a crowded field. The crowded field itself is also an illustration of how New Jersey political watchers view Menendez’s precarious political situation and his uphill climb to hold on to his seat.

“Money talks. So we will see what the true political ramifications are once end of the year filings publish in January. Then we’ll know who is with Sen. Menendez and if the political funds are shifting,” a senior political operative told the Washington Examiner of the true state of the primary race. “Momentum is money, that’s the only thing that matters.”

On the fundraising front, Kim slightly outraised Menendez in the third quarter of this year, bringing in $1.2 million compared to the embattled senator’s $919,000. Menendez does have more cash on hand, however, with $8.6 million compared to Kim’s $1.9 million.

Menendez has seen his approval rating among New Jersey voters plummet below 10% in polls conducted since his two indictments, making him the equivalent of political poison even as a long-serving Democrat in a deep blue state. Even if Menendez manages to be the Democratic Party’s nominee next year, Republicans will be lining up for the chance to challenge such an embattled figure.

Depending on the electability of the GOP nominee, they could pose a threat to Menendez’s candidacy.

“Democrats have won every New Jersey Senate race since 1978, and 2024 will be no different,” a national Democratic Senate campaign aide told the Washington Examiner when asked about the possibility that Menendez wins the nomination.

Menendez has until June to get in the race, as do his possible Republican competitors. Thus far, four GOP candidates have gotten in the race, though only one of those launched their bids with any endorsements.

Christine Serrano Glassner, the mayor of Mendham Borough, has the endorsement of the Morris County Republican Party and Rep. Tom Kean (R-NJ). She launched her bid in September after Menendez was indicted on bribery charges.

Aside from Glassner, there’s also Gregg Mele, who was the Libertarian nominee in the state’s 2021 gubernatorial race, businessman Michael Estrada, and Daniel Cruz, a teacher and former state Senate candidate.

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Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) decided against throwing his hat in the ring after publicly saying he was considering a bid, instead opting to seek another term in the House.

Seriously considering getting in the race are Melinda Castro Ciattarelli, the ex-wife of the state’s 2021 GOP gubernatorial candidate; Alex Zdan, a former local news anchor; Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff, the former state treasurer; and Curtis Bashaw, a real estate developer and casino executive.