The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found that 60% of likely voters are in favor of Proposition 36, which would deliver harsher punishment to repeat offenders. The online poll of 3,045 Californians was conducted between Sept. 25 and Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

“Voters are intent on passing this initiative,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, a nonpartisan survey of California public opinion. “The reasons, I think, are interesting.”

Despite rallying behind harsher sentences for repeat offenders, nearly half of those surveyed said they supported rehabilitation and treatment for first-time offenders. In fact, 86% said they believe it is more important for California to expand rehabilitation and treatment for first-time offenders as the best way to improve the criminal justice system.

Voters were evenly split on whether the ballot measure would actually reduce homelessness and drug addiction that has plagued the West Coast state for decades. Curbing homelessness and addiction is one of the strongest selling points the measure’s proponents have pitched.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and California’s Democratic legislative leadership have publicly opposed Proposition 36, claiming it would take a more tough-on-crime approach that, in the past, led to state prisons being so overcrowded that federal judges ruled the state was violating the constitutional rights of prisoners.

“There are things voters have on their minds that, apparently, the politicians have underestimated,” DiCamilo said.

Despite a “no” from Newsom, a majority of Republicans and independents backed the measure, according to the poll. Both men and women supported Proposition 36 pretty evenly, though voters under 30 expressed the least support.

Greg Totten, co-chairman of the Yes on Proposition 36 campaign, told the Los Angeles Times that the poll is “consistent with what we hear every day from Californians from every community in the state.”

Californians want a “balanced approach to improving safety in their neighborhoods that holds repeat theft offenders and fentanyl traffickers accountable, and highly incentivizes drug treatment for people with addictions,” he added.

Anthony York, a former Newsom spokesman who now serves as a spokesman for the “no” side of Proposition 36, said the opposing side has done an “effective job of misleading voters.”

“The survey shows voters support treatment,” York said, claiming that Proposition 36 will cut funding for important treatment programs and increase prison spending. “It’s our job in the coming weeks to tell them what’s really behind Prop. 36.”

Voters also weighed in on some of the other ballot measures they will consider next month. There are 10 on the ballot.

The poll found support was slipping for an initiative that would increase California’s minimum wage.

Proposition 32 would raise the minimum wage to $17 an hour for the rest of the year and to $18 starting in January 2025. The current minimum wage is $16. California became the first state in the nation to reach a $15 minimum wage in 2022. If voters push Proposition 32 through, it would give Californians the nation’s highest state minimum wage.

Support was lukewarm for Proposition 33, which would expand the local government’s authority to enact rent control.

Cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco limit how high a landlord can raise the rent annually.

For the past 30 years, California has imposed limits on those limits. Cities cannot set rent control on single-family homes or apartments built after 1995.

If Proposition 33 passes, cities would be given the green light to control rents on any type of housing, including single-family homes and new apartments. Critics, including deep-pocketed landlord groups and management companies, have spent millions trying to convince voters that rent control is not the way to fix the state’s housing crisis.

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, nearly 30% of the state’s renters spend more than half of their monthly paycheck on rent.

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The other ballot measures voters will weigh in on include limiting forced labor in state prisons, reaffirming gay marriage, lowering voter approval requirements so local governments can build affordable housing and other infrastructure projects, requiring certain medical providers to use prescription drug revenue for patients, making a permanent tax on managed healthcare programs to raise more money for Medi-Cal and block lawmakers from using money to avoid cuts to other programs, and two bond issues that would borrow $10 billion each to fight climate change and build schools and colleges.