Cuban support keeps Maduro in power, complicating a solution to the Venezuelan crisis

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The crisis in Venezuela has been one of the longest and most complex conflicts in Latin America in recent decades. Nicolás Maduro’s hold on power, sustained by electoral fraud, has defied all predictions. One key reason for his continued rule is the direct support from Cuba.

According to Jorge G. Castañeda, former foreign minister of Mexico, Cuban intervention has not only reinforced the stability of Maduro’s regime but has made any solution unlikely without Havana’s approval.

For years, there has been discussion about the role Cubans play in Venezuela. Castañeda explained how the Maduro regime has been supported by a Cuban contingent acting as a kind of “praetorian guard,” protecting the Venezuelan leader from any attempts to overthrow him.

This situation, rarely seen in recent history, has been a crucial factor in preventing the Venezuelan military from taking action that could destabilize the regime. The Cuban contingent, according to Castañeda, consists of intelligence agents who constantly monitor the Venezuelan armed forces, ensuring no internal movements threaten Maduro’s power.

The Cubans, loyal to their own country rather than Venezuela, are tasked with preserving Maduro’s control to safeguard Havana’s interests. Castañeda points out that Cuban officers are not affected by Venezuela’s economic and social crises, making them immune to pressures that might influence local military officials.

Cuban influence in Venezuela: beyond the military apparatus

Cuban support for Maduro is not limited to its military. Cuban influence extends to Venezuela’s political and economic institutions, evident in policies of social control and repression of dissent, mirroring the Cuban model.

Moreover, the Maduro government has adopted a subsistence economy approach similar to Cuba’s, heavily relying on international aid and natural resource exploitation to survive. The relationship between Cuba and Venezuela has been solidified through trade and energy agreements, such as exchanging Venezuelan oil for medical services provided by Cuba.

This type of arrangement has allowed Cuba to circumvent international sanctions imposed by the United States, while Venezuela benefits from the strategic support of one of the longest-standing dictatorships in the region.

What incentives could change Cuba’s stance?

Castañeda argues that the only way to shift Cuba’s position regarding Venezuela is through normalizing relations with the United States. He believes that Cuba’s dire economic situation makes the elimination of U.S. sanctions and the reactivation of remittances the only viable way out for Havana. This incentive could push Cuba to reconsider its support for Maduro and pursue a more negotiated solution to the Venezuelan crisis.

Mexico’s stance under Claudia Sheinbaum

Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency in Mexico has sparked uncertainty over how she will handle the country’s foreign policy on the Venezuelan crisis. Castañeda has expressed concern that Sheinbaum’s approach could be even more passive than that of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. While AMLO at least called for discussions in international forums, Sheinbaum has taken a more neutral stance, indicating that her government will remain «impartial» regarding Venezuela.

This neutrality could have negative consequences for Mexico in the region. A lack of clear stance weakens efforts by countries like Colombia and Brazil, which have been leading international pressure for a peaceful solution in Venezuela. Sheinbaum’s lukewarm approach indirectly supports communist regimes.

Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized that just as Colombia, Brazil, and the United States (US) have taken positions regarding Venezuela, «our position is constitutional.» She stated, «From now on, we will remain, let’s say, impartial regarding this.»