Democracy Derby: How McConnell’s health raises stakes of Kentucky governor’s race

Democracy Derby: How McConnell’s health raises stakes of Kentucky governor’s race

October 03, 2023 06:00 AM

All eyes may be on 2024, but 2023 is an important election year for some states, not least Kentucky. Top of the card is Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and whether the Democrat incumbent can win again in a typically red state, potentially launching himself into the 2028 presidential conversation. This Washington Examiner series, Democracy Derby, will take a closer look at Beshear’s prospects, the makeup of the Bluegrass State as a whole, and whether Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) health may raise the stakes.

Much is at stake in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election next month between the state’s governor, Andy Beshear (D-KY), and Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron next month.

The race is expected to be one of the most expensive contests of the year and will serve as the latest preview of voter sentiment ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The incumbent Beshear winning a second term would be a major boon for Democrats going into next year, while a Cameron victory would give Republicans a much-needed boost of momentum.

DEMOCRACY DERBY: HOW THE KENTUCKY GOVERNOR’S RACE COULD SERVE AS A SPRINGBOARD INTO 2028

The contest also has implications for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), whose replacement would be chosen by the winner of this race should health matters require him to step down early. McConnell, 81, has said in the wake of a pair of highly publicized health scares that he intends to finish out his term, which ends at the start of 2027.

The GOP leader’s adamance that he is up to the job has not quelled speculation about his political future and what it would mean if he were to resign early.

With McConnell’s support and a supermajority in the state legislature, Kentucky Republicans passed a bill in 2021 requiring the governor to choose between three candidates put forward by the party of the outgoing senator if they were to create a vacancy before their term is up.

Beshear was overruled after vetoing the legislation and has refused to commit to following it in the event of an unexpected retirement, arguing the law “improperly and unconstitutionally” restricted his power to fill vacancies, making his reelection that much more consequential for McConnell and the GOP.

McConnell, the longest-serving Senate leader in U.S. history, has faced a flurry of questions about his health and well-being in recent months.

The top Senate Republican froze in front of the cameras in late August after appearing to lose concentration. Asked by a reporter about his 2026 election plans, McConnell stared off into the distance, unable to speak for about 30 seconds until aides rushed to his side.

Mitch McConnell, John Barrasso, John Thune, Joni Ernst
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is helped after the 81-year-old GOP leader froze at the microphones as he arrived for a news conference, Wednesday, July 26, 2023

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

That incident came one month after a similar episode in which McConnell suddenly froze midsentence while speaking to reporters and looked ahead with an apparent blank stare for 18 seconds.

The Kentucky senator and his allies have sought to dispel any notion that he is not up to the top job in leadership, with McConnell himself projecting complete normalcy since the two incidents.

McConnell’s office released a letter upon his return from August recess from Dr. Brian Monahan, the Capitol’s attending physician, which cleared him for work. The memo ruled out the possibility of the octogenarian suffering a seizure, stroke, or other movement disorder such as Parkinson’s disease.

The move was not entirely surprising for McConnell, who is revered as one of the greatest political operators of the last century. The GOP leader has been careful about how he presents himself to the press and the larger public, especially given that showing any signs of vulnerability could lead to questions about his power.

Scott Jennings, a longtime McConnell adviser, emphatically dismissed any notion that the seven-term senator would not finish his term in an interview with the Washington Examiner on Monday.

“I’ve been around McConnell quite a bit lately. I think he’s fine,” Jennings said, later adding, “I don’t think he’s going anywhere.”

The question is not about McConnell’s health, he explained, but that Beshear and his allies in Kentucky may violate state law in the event of a vacancy.

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Multiple state Democrats have reportedly speculated that Beshear would ignore the 2021 law and appoint a Democrat, daring Republicans to sue. A lawsuit would stall the appointment; it would also give Beshear the chance to challenge the new law legally.

“I do think they’ve raised this as an issue and so I think they’re the ones that you really want to ask,” Jennings said of Democrats. “I know if Daniel Cameron wins, he’ll follow all the laws, but Beshear only follows the ones he feels like following.”

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