Democratic PAC looks at voters who dislike both Biden and Trump

A Democratic PAC found that a growing constituency of voters who hold negative views of both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden tends to be more educated, more male, more Republican, and supported Trump during his first election in 2016.

The PAC Unite the Country conducted polling in September in three key swing states each with the potential to decide the 2024 election, especially if it is a rematch between Trump and Biden. The data out of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin “revealed a remarkably tight race, akin to the 2022 margins, with a 50:50 split in a forced 2‐candidate choice across the three states,” the PAC wrote in a memo earlier this month.

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Out of 3,000 people polled by the group, 482 were what it dubbed “no-no” voters. This means they held negative opinions of both Trump and Biden. Among the subgroup of likely voters, the two men are “essentially tied.” This is consistent with recent polls from various institutions showing a neck-and-neck battle between Trump and Biden, particularly so in battleground states.

The PAC noted that Trump leads Biden with the “no-no” voters by just 3 points overall. However, when just considering those who are “certain” of who they’re voting for, Biden wins by the same margin.

Further, more than a third of the group is still undecided on a Biden-Trump matchup, “indicating an opportunity for persuasion,” Unite the Country said.

The PAC detailed some of the defining characteristics of the unique voter bloc and how it differs from the general swing state voter. When it comes to education, the “no-no” voter was more likely to have a bachelor’s degree or higher, with nearly half of them having one. In the general sample, 41% had a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Additionally, the subset of voters happens to be more male, being made up of 51% men. The total sample was 47% men.

More significant differences were gauged in terms of partisan identification. The group was more Republican, by 12 points, compared to the total sample, which leaned Democratic by 2 points. The “no-no” voters were also won by Trump in 2016 by 17 points.

Despite having overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2016, the group now holds negative views of the former president, and with more intensity than it does of Biden. Of “no-no” voters, more than half, 59%, have “very unfavorable” views of Trump, while 49% feel the same about Biden. Trump is additionally more frequently seen as corrupt, divisive, and likely to be a liar by the voting bloc.

The PAC, which has been promoting Biden’s reelection in 2024, noted in the memo, “Our focus must shift to engage and understand the ‘No‐No’ voters. They could be the tipping point, as was evident in 2020 when this segment, with a history of voting disproportionately for Trump, chose Biden by a 53‐47 margin.”

Using the newly collected data, the PAC said it plans to highlight “a vote for Biden as a vote for the nation’s well‐being.” Instead of advertising Biden as a candidate necessarily deserving of their vote, the organization is looking to frame the decision as a vote against Trump.

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The way it hopes to do this is to “strategically engage them through a mix of television and digital channels.”

It further pointed to the fact that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin each went to Trump in 2016 but flipped for Biden in 2020. “According to a study we just completed, as many as 700,000 likely Wisconsin voters have a negative opinion of both President Biden and Donald Trump — and if those voters break 55‐45% Trump, Trump would win these voters by more than 70,000 votes — meaning he would very likely carry Wisconsin,” the PAC wrote, emphasizing the importance of outreach to the “no-no” voters in these states.