Democrats split on whether Colorado ballot ruling will hurt Biden in 2024

Democratic insiders agree the Colorado Supreme Court ruling disqualifying former President Donald Trump from the 2024 ballot will further his standing with Republicans who feel he’s a victim of political targeting.

But Democrats disagree over whether the court decision will help Trump win over swing voters in a general election matchup against President Joe Biden next year as he and his allies decry what they say amounts to “election interference.”

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The Tuesday evening ruling, focused on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause, forced Trump’s Republican primary rivals to come to his defense once again, distracting them from campaigning against him in the final weeks before the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), without naming Trump, pushed back against the decision’s “spurious legal grounds.”

Trump’s biggest Republican critics have for months denounced a so-called two-tiered justice system over the criminal investigations into the former president. That claim has only bolstered his decided lead in the GOP primary. Democratic strategists told the Washington Examiner the Colorado ruling is another grievance Trump will point to as he continues campaigning.

“It feeds right into his persecution defense that everything is political, and they’re going after him because he’s so wonderful for Republicans. So, it’s just more fuel for the fire,” Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist based in Sacramento, California, said before offering cautionary words.

“I think the danger here is it also might play out a little more with some independents who might think it’s very unreasonable to keep somebody off the ballot, no matter what they’ve done,” he added. “And it’s a fundamental choice for voters to make the decision. And that’s what’s concerning to me.”

One Democrat close to Biden campaign officials and the White House expressed alarm, telling NBC News “they’re pissed” over the Colorado decision for making it look “like Colorado is attempting election interference through non-elected Democratic-appointed justices with funding from ‘shady left-wing donors.'”

Erick Sanchez, a political consultant, said no matter whether Trump is removed from the ballot or the U.S. Supreme Court allows his name to remain, it is American democracy that ultimately loses. “I think it’d be nice to see him traditionally lose the old-fashioned way,” Sanchez said. “Now, of course, even in a scenario like that, we would expect him to probably claim that this upcoming election was also rigged too.”

Some polling before the ruling showed Trump beating Biden in key swing states that will likely decide the next election. A Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll released last week showed Trump beating Biden 47% to 42% in seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — combined. Last month, an Emerson College poll of six swing states showed Trump leading everywhere except Michigan.

Other Democrats claimed voters in swing states would not be swayed by Trump’s primary ballot problems due to their weariness of the former president’s penchant for chaos, not to mention his ongoing legal baggage as he faces 91 criminal indictments.

“I think the voters and the American people are going to pick their own side on that, and to be honest with you, I think most of them already have,” said Randy Jones, a Democratic political consultant. “I don’t think this ruling or potentially others will change very many minds.”

Jones pointed to Trump losing the 2020 race to Biden as one example of why voters would not be swayed to back Trump this election cycle. “The American people were very tired of the drama, and I think as this election continues, I think we’re obviously going to see that again from former President Trump,” Jones added. “I don’t think he’s capable of anything else. And I think that for Joe Biden to win, he needs to remain a steady hand.”

Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, called the fretting from the Biden campaign source to NBC News an “overreaction.”

“We’re dealing with Republican primary voters who are die-hard Trump supporters,” Bannon said. “They get riled up every time the legal system strikes at their guy. But swing voters, they just want it to stop. They don’t want any more drama. They’re just tired of the never-ending soap opera, the trials, and tribulations of Donald Trump. They want it to go away.”

Another Democratic strategist, Simon Rosenberg, was blunt in his assessment. “If Republicans think that the wheels of justice turning on the crimes they’ve committed and their attempt to overturn American democracy is somehow going to end up being favorable to them, they’re going to have a very bad election next year,” Rosenberg said.

A YouGov survey of 3,492 adults showed 54% approved of the Colorado ruling, with 38% strongly approving and 16% somewhat approving. A little over a third of adults, 35%, disapproved of the decision, with 28% strongly disapproving and 7% somewhat disapproving. The polls released on Wednesday suggest Democrats may be right that the American public won’t penalize Biden in the matter.

The White House shied away from opining on the Colorado ruling on Wednesday, but Biden quickly interjected himself.

“It’s self-evident,” Biden said the same day during a speech on “Bidenomics” in Michigan. “You saw it all. Now, whether the 14th Amendment applies, I’ll let the court make that decision. But he certainly supported an insurrection. No question about it. None. Zero. And he seems to be doubling down on about everything.”

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Nonetheless, the strategists who spoke to the Washington Examiner were adamant that Biden should let Trump face scrutiny without adding fuel to the fire. “They should let their attack dogs do their job, but I think he needs to stay above the fray,” said Maviglio on how Biden should approach Trump’s latest legal drama. “One of the biggest contrasts, I think, at the end of the day is going to be the chaos of the four years of Trump versus the calmness of the Biden administration. … I think anytime they stoop to his level, it hurts them in the long run.”

Similarly, Sanchez argued for Biden to get back to issues voters care about. “I would say it would be a better use of time to just continue traveling to the states that are heavily impacted on an issue base, spending as much time in swing states as possible and focusing directly on issues and ignoring this,” he said. “Because I do feel like it’ll be something that the Trump campaign weaponizes. But as a sitting president of the United States, I just feel like it’s not worth squabbling on state issues when we really should be focused on how we bring the country back together.”