Democrats worry Biden has a ‘huge problem’ losing black voters heading into 2024

Democrats are growing concerned that President Joe Biden may be without the support of a key voting bloc next November as the Democratic Party continues to fall out of favor with a growing number of black voters. .

In the 2022 midterm elections, black voter turnout declined compared to previous midterm elections. In Philadelphia, for example, vote totals declined by an aggregate of 20 points in precincts where black residents make up 70% or more of the population. An analysis of the Census Bureau’s turnout survey, black voter turnout fell from 51.7% in 2018 to 42% in 2022. If this decline continues into 2024, particularly in battleground states that Biden narrowly won in 2020, it could be fatal to Biden’s reelection campaign.

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“I am absolutely concerned. Frankly, I am extremely concerned,” one elected Democrat told the Wall Street Journal. “This is a huge problem.”

A poll from the New York Times and Siena College found that 22% of black voters in six of the most important battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — said they would vote for former President Donald Trump in next year’s election and 71% would back Biden. This is a significant step up for Trump, who received 8% of black voters in 2020 and 6% in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center.

A Republican presidential candidate has not won more than 12% of the black vote in nearly 50 years. Conversely, no Democratic presidential candidate since the civil rights era has earned less than 80% of the black vote. In 2020, 92% of black voters voted for and boosted Biden to the nomination. Democratic allies and strategists are worried that Biden could lose his reelection bid if black people keep trending away from Biden.

“The risk is that people stay home,” Alicia Garza, an activist and founder of Black Futures Lab, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. “I think the problem is black voters are consistently underinvested in.”

Black voters are not receiving much incentive to turn out for the election, either. Wage gains have cooled more dramatically for black workers compared to other workers. Median weekly earnings for black people who work full time rose 4.2% in the third quarter compared to a 10.3% gain last year. Overall wages increased 4.5% last quarter compared to the 6.9% increase in 2022.

The unemployment rate for black workers reached a record low in April at 4.7%, and 80% of black voters said in the New York Times/Siena College poll that the current economic conditions were fair or poor. Inflation typically hits black communities harder due to spending a greater portion of income on transportation or housing, per research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

To combat these problems, the Democratic National Committee and the Biden campaign started targeting black and Latino populations early, investing in voter registration, outreach, and advertising. Most recently, the DNC made large ad buys in battleground cities with large black and Latino communities, including $25 million in August on TV ads in Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Phoenix.

“This is earlier investment into these communities than [has] ever been done before,” Biden’s deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks said.

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Another method of outreach to rally black voters is coming in the form of Vice President Kamala Harris, the first black vice president. She has been touring historically black colleges and other universities as part of her “Fight for Our Freedoms” cross-country college bus tour, as well as speaking at events for the NAACP and Alpha Kappa Alpha, a historically black sorority.

Harris dismissed questions in October about the “disconnect” between black voters and the Biden administration’s accomplishments. Instead, she stated, “Why don’t you talk to me after 2024?”