DeSantis and Haley top targets in what is expected to be a ‘raucous’ second GOP debate

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are aware they have targets on their backs before the second 2024 Republican primary debate.

But regardless of expectations setting, their campaigns require strong performances to survive the fall and winter, with only four months until Iowa‘s caucuses.

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DeSantis, who remains in second place behind former President Donald Trump, was considered the top target before last month’s first debate in Milwaukee and is again before Wednesday’s meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, California, according to University of Michigan debate director Aaron Kall. Haley is likely to be similarly targeted after her last outing resulted in polling momentum.

“She may have done the best the first time,” Kall told the Washington Examiner. “Given that her views are a lot more moderate than most of the other candidates, especially on abortion, you could have the candidates attacking her to see if she can follow up or if she’ll fold under pressure.”

Although DeSantis managed to stay above the fray during the first debate, Kall was unconvinced he will be able to do that again, particularly since one less person, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, is taking part. DeSantis will be center stage between Haley and biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, with former Vice President Mike Pence, onetime New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) also participating.

“The stage is smaller, we’re even closer to when voting starts, no one did anything to dent Trump’s lead in the last debate, so I think it will be more raucous overall,” Kall, the debate coach, said. “Haley is in a much better position to withstand it.”

But Ed Lee, director of Emory University’s Alben W. Barkley Forum for Debate, Deliberation, and Dialogue, predicted people may “tune in” to “learn more” about Ramaswamy after his “good showing during the first debate.”

“He was captivating and entertaining, and the other candidates know that,” Lee said. “He is brash and is willing to take a stance.”

For Lee, Ramaswamy, “like Trump,” “has a pretty good read on his audience” and “knows what the Republican primary voter is looking for.”

“He is clearly a threat to the established candidates who are running on records that no one seems to care about,” the debate coach said. “Ramaswamy will be the focal point of several well-scripted attacks. However, I was impressed with his ability to brush off the broadside attacks during the first debate.”

“He is a gifted communicator who knows that you don’t have to be right if you are confident,” he added. “He just might be the most confident person on the stage.”

Meanwhile, Ramaswamy, who has 5% support in RealClearPolitics’s national primary polling averages, is fundraising off of the prospect of criticism. Trump has 57%, DeSantis 14.5%, and Haley 5.6%.

“I was the No. 1 target of the establishment — Mike Pence set his sights on me. Nikki Haley lodged attacks. Even Chris Christie came after me,” Ramaswamy wrote Tuesday in an email. “We can expect that to happen again.”

A Ramaswamy campaign spokeswoman conceded her candidate was “a little surprised” by how many of his primary opponents scrutinized him during the first debate, but he “won’t be surprised this time.”

“Vivek is a fighter at heart, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it got a little sporty again, but our real goal is for him to introduce himself to the American people,” she said. “[A third] of Americans don’t know who he is, much less how to pronounce his name. It’s Vivek’s job to share with the American people who he is, what he stands [for], and his vision to revive our country.”

DeSantis, whose aides are bracing for a barrage as well, is eager to amplify his message to the public, who, he says, are “just now” beginning to pay attention, per his campaign manager James Uthmeier.

“[DeSantis’s primary opponents] continue to prop up the former president, even after a disastrous stretch in which he gave the middle finger to a packed Iowa stadium and attacked pro-life legislation passed not only in Florida, but also in Iowa, South Carolina, and Georgia,” Uthmeier wrote this week to donors. “Trump also admitted his intent to capitulate to Democrats on key issues if he is re-elected, and he continues to replicate Joe Biden’s campaign-from-the-basement strategy despite his own advisers even acknowledging it will hurt him in Iowa.”

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The Haley campaign, too, is anticipating an adversarial dynamic between the former ambassador and her primary opponents, adamant she will stand her ground.

“As I prepare to take the stage … and share my vision for America, I’ve been thinking back to an important moment — one of my very first debates as a gubernatorial candidate,” Haley wrote Tuesday to supporters. “I was the underdog when I ran for governor. I was the least funded and least known GOP candidate in the race. No one thought I had a shot. But that didn’t stop me.”