DeSantis campaign on the brink as Iowa caucuses near

Gov. Ron DeSantis‘s (R-FL) presidential campaign hit another snag this week amid a report that advisers close to the candidate are attempting to “make the patient comfortable” ahead of a possible campaign suspension.

The comment could mark the beginning of the end of DeSantis’s campaign. The unwelcome news comes less than three weeks before the make-or-break Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, where the governor must finish in the top two spots or risk dropping out of the 2024 Republican primary.

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DeSantis has long struggled in the battle to defeat former President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. The Florida governor trails Trump, 63.8% to 11.6%, in a RealClearPolitics poll average and is fending off a rising campaign from former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who polled at 10.8%. Haley has sometimes even claimed second place in other early nominating polls, threatening DeSantis’s attempts to emerge as the non-Trump candidate in the field.

Elsewhere, the governor’s campaign and affiliated super PAC, Never Back Down, have undergone several campaign “resets” and the departures of six high-level executives within the last month amid infighting. Never Back Down canceled $2.5 million in advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two early nominating states in the GOP primary last week, although Fight Right, a second super PAC backing DeSantis, claimed it would replace the ad buys in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Most recently, DeSantis pollster Ryan Tyson reportedly told multiple people privately that the campaign was attempting to “make the patient comfortable,” a hospice care term that suggests DeSantis’s 2024 ambitions will not last long, according to a report from the New York Times published on Sunday. Tyson has since denied he made those comments.

But the recent struggles could threaten DeSantis’s presidential campaign not just in this cycle but also in 2028, one GOP strategist said.

“The fact is the DeSantis campaign has been on a downward slide for months. The highlight of the campaign feels like ages ago, which was sometime in the first quarter of this year,” national Republican strategist Brian Seitchik told the Washington Examiner. “But unlike other folks who have enhanced themselves to the presidential campaign, the opposite seems true of DeSantis. It’s hard to think how in 2028 Ron DeSantis is going to be best positioned to capture the hearts and minds of voters when that sunshine during this campaign has been detrimental to his efforts to win over voters.”

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Matt Dole, a Republican political consultant based in Ohio, claimed there is a pathway for DeSantis to last through the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary. “Like a Facebook relationship status, it’s complicated. He’s invested a lot of money into this race. At this level and time, he can coast for a while,” Dole said. “Certainly he’ll stay in until the Iowa caucuses, and if he were to outperform Nikki Haley, he would make the case that that should carry him into New Hampshire.”

But Dole also conceded that Trump is the front-runner in the race with a sizable lead over all Republican rivals. “Ron DeSantis’s advisers and even himself, if he works to look deep within himself, is looking for a soft landing to this thing,” Dole added. “I just don’t see any path forward.”

DeSantis’s campaign blamed the media for attempting to hurt the governor’s campaign in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

“Different day, same media hit job based on unnamed sources with agendas. While the media tried to proclaim this campaign dead back in August, Ron DeSantis fought back and enters the home stretch in Iowa as the hardest-working candidate with the most robust ground game,” said communications director Andrew Romeo. “DeSantis has been underestimated in every race he’s ever run and always proved the doubters wrong — we are confident he will defy the odds once again on Jan. 15.”

Strategists stress that DeSantis needs to win the Iowa caucuses or come in a close second place to appear a truly viable candidate against Trump. “If he wins, if he comes in second in Iowa, he’s still alive,” Seitchik said. “If he comes in third, stick a fork in him. Obviously, the best-case scenario is he beats Trump in Iowa, and then we have a real race here. But while possible, that certainly seems unlikely at this time.”

DeSantis has visited all 99 counties in Iowa in a bid to outcampaign Trump in the Hawkeye State. Yet the former president is still vastly outpolling him in Iowa by double digits. And although Trump is the leading candidate, it is DeSantis who has faced the most deluge in negative campaign attacks, to the tune of more than $35 million.

“If I were advising his campaign, I would say go to Iowa and stay there and talk to Iowa voters. Don’t worry about what’s happening on the national stage,” Dole said. “Yes, there seems to be a drip, drip, drip of stories. And frankly, there’s been a drip, drip, drip of stories about DeSantis for about eight months … and really the only audience that matters is Iowa caucusgoers, and that’s who he needs to get fixed, not the New York Times.”

Steve Hilding, a Republican strategist and vice president of political consulting firm McShane, claimed that until voters make their choice on Jan. 15, it is too early to write off DeSantis’s campaign. “I don’t think you can call the nail in the coffin until you actually start to see the results coming in from these races,” Hilding said. “I think there’s some time before it can be called dead or over. But I think it’s not looking good right now.”

But as voters recover from the holiday season, time is nearly running out for the governor to make his final arguments to persuade Iowa caucusgoers. Outside of campaign events, there will be a Jan. 10 debate in Des Moines, Iowa, hosted by CNN just five days before the caucuses.

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Trump is likely to skip this debate, similar to his snubbing of the first four GOP primary debates, as he argues that his lead in polls protects him from having to share a stage with his rivals. Yet it will be a chance for DeSantis to try to change his campaign narrative and help block Trump from winning Iowa or New Hampshire.

“This next couple of weeks is going to be absolutely critical,” Hilding continued. “I don’t think it necessarily means the end of the DeSantis campaign or a shoo-in for the rest of the contests for Trump. But I think that these next couple weeks are going to be absolutely crucial for the DeSantis campaign and the survival of their campaign past these first couple of contests.”