Dual Polls Find Trump Leading Biden In Two Key Southern Battleground States

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina for a head-to-head general election rematch, according to dual Wednesday polls.

Trump is favored 51% to 47% against Biden among registered voters in Georgia, as well as 51% to 48% in North Carolina, the Marist surveys found. Both polls also found Trump making inroads among independents, black voters and those aged 18-to-29 compared to 2020 exit polling. (RELATED: Could Dems Flip North Carolina In 2024?)

Biden is leading Trump by only one point among independents in Georgia, while the former president is ahead by six points in North Carolina, according to the surveys. In 2020, the president won over the group by nine points in Georgia and four points in North Carolina.

“North Carolina has been a battleground state for several presidential election cycles and remains so in 2024,” Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement. “Both Biden and Trump have secured their base. The tale of the tape will be who commands independent voters and voters who dislike both presidential candidates.”

Trump has a five-point advantage among those aged 18-to-29 in Georgia, and is down by only one point in North Carolina, the polls found. Biden beat the former president by 13 points in Georgia and 17 points in North Carolina with these youth voters last cycle.

Black voters broke for Biden 75% to 24% in Georgia, as well as 79% to 20% in North Carolina. In 2020, the president won the demographic 88% to 11% in Georgia, as well as 92% to 7% in North Carolina.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 19: US President Joe Biden looks out at the crowd while speaking at Stupak Community Center on March 19, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Biden delivered remarks on making affordable housing more available for American families. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 19: US President Joe Biden looks out at the crowd while speaking at Stupak Community Center. (Ian Maule/Getty Images)

With independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included on the ballot, Trump’s lead grew by one point in Georgia and remained the same in North Carolina, according to the polls. Kennedy received 14% support in Georgia, where he’s nearing ballot access, and 11% of the share in North Carolina.

Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, but only beat Biden by 1.3 points last cycle. The former president lost Georgia to Biden by less than one point in 2020 after winning the state in his first election.

Both Trump and Biden became their respective parties’ presumptive nominees on March 12 when they surpassed the necessary delegate thresholds with nominating contests in Georgia, Mississippi, Washington and Hawaii.

Trump is currently leading Biden by 5.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average for Georgia‘s election, as well as by five points in North Carolina‘s. Nationally, the former president is ahead by 2.1 points, and has already led in more than 100 polls this cycle.

The Marist polls surveyed 1,177 registered voters in Georgia and 1,197 in North Carolina between March 11 and March 14. The surveys had margins of error of plus or minus 3.7% in Georgia and 3.6% in North Carolina.

Neither Trump nor Biden’s campaign immediately responded to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment.

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