Early favorites who could succeed Manchin for senator of West Virginia

West Virginia Republicans have a significant advantage in one of the most closely watched Senate contests after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not launch a reelection bid.

West Virginia’s elected offices used to be largely dominated by the Democratic Party, but an early-2000s shift has turned one of the nation’s most rural states heavily red. Former President Barack Obama failed to secure support in West Virginia during his campaigns, and former President Donald Trump swept the state, with 68.6% of the vote to President Joe Biden’s 29.7%.

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Manchin’s announcement last Thursday that he will not run for Senate again next year means the state has lost its last remaining Democrat elected to statewide office. The move also fueled rumors that Manchin would launch a third-party presidential campaign for 2024. With all eyes on what Manchin’s political future entails, Democrats are left vulnerable to high-profile Republicans vying for his Senate seat in 2024.

Jim Justice

(AP Photo/Chris Jackson, File)

Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), an ally of Trump, launched his long-anticipated Senate run in April, running on promises of fixing energy, inflation, and immigration.

The popular two-term governor and once billionaire entered the race with plenty of financial backing, named by Forbes as the Mountain State’s wealthiest resident in 2019. However, the business empire he built on coal has faced lawsuits from the Justice Department for unpaid environmental fines and other past-due fees.

Justice was elected governor in 2016 as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party in 2017 at a Trump rally. Half of GOP lawmakers in West Virginia have endorsed Trump for 2024, showing the former president’s grip on Republican voters in the state. In mid-October, Trump endorsed Justice in the West Virginia Senate race, with Justice throwing his support behind the former president as well.

In a statement on Thursday, Justice noted that he and Manchin “have not always agreed on policy and politics” while thanking him for “his many years of public service.”

Alex Mooney 

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)

Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) announced his Senate campaign in November, running on strong criticisms of Justice and saying he has liberal-leaning policies, and urged voters to support a traditional conservative.

Mooney tried to seek Trump’s endorsement before the former president announced he would support Justice. In 2022, Trump backed Mooney over David McKinley in the Republican primary in the newly created 2nd District of West Virginia. Mooney swept McKinley by around 20 percentage points.

After Manchin’s announcement, Mooney’s campaign manager, John Findlay, released a statement saying there’s no difference between Manchin and Justice.

“With Joe Manchin out of the race, there’s only one candidate left in West Virginia who supports the liberal Biden agenda, and that is Jim Justice,” Findlay said, adding that Mooney is “the only true conservative for the U.S. Senate who will fight back against the Biden agenda.”

Mercer County resident Zane Lawhorn is listed as another Republican candidate, and GOP member Chris Rose dropped out of the Senate race to seek the state seat.

Zachary Shrewsbury

Democratic candidate Zachary Shrewsbury, a Marine Corps veteran, is the newest candidate to join the race. Shrewsbury is running on a platform for working-class families, saying in a video statement on X, formerly Twitter, that there is not “enough working-class representation in our government.”

“Manchin, Jim justice, what have you, no longer represent us — they represent themselves at the end of the day,” Shrewsbury told ABC 4, adding that no one is talking about the need for healthcare. “No one’s actually talking about tackling the addiction crisis. They show up at election time. They haven’t been in the community like I’ve been for years, talking to people.”

Shrewsbury served five years in the Marine Corps, which he says gave him the leadership skills needed to serve in the Senate.

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No other Democrat has launched a public bid to succeed Manchin. Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, the governorship, and the secretary of state and attorney general offices.

According to the most recent poll of voters by Emerson College, which was conducted before Manchin’s announcement, Justice would have beaten the Democratic incumbent in a hypothetical matchup, 41% to 28%, respectively. Against Mooney, Manchin would have been reelected, polls suggested.