As millions go to cast their ballots on Election Day, early voting results have been largely down from the 2020 election.
While 2020 saw a surge of absentee and early voting due to the COVID-19 pandemic, an expected enhanced turnout for 2024 hasn’t been able to surpass the last election cycle in voting before Election Day, according to voter data.
While this likely isn’t indicative of overall turnout being down, it does indicate the country could be flocking back to Election Day voting. But some states have stepped up their early voting game.
West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut, Michigan, and South Carolina definitively passed their 2020 election early voting thresholds, but all stayed under 50% total turnout. West Virginia had one of the more stunning totals, more than doubling its 2020 early voting totals as Republicans have embraced early voting.
About 82 million votes have been cast in early voting, while about 101 million votes were cast in 2020.
Michigan and Georgia are the only swing states so far to meet or exceed their 2020 early vote count. The rest have all run behind, though states such as North Carolina and Georgia have exceeded 50% of their 2020 vote count in early voting.
When it comes to party registration in early voting, Republicans have generally exceeded their 2020 numbers in most parts of the country. Former President Donald Trump has emphasized early and absentee voting much more than in 2020, and it has shown among his supporters.
While Republican or Democratic registration numbers in early voting don’t necessarily mean votes for Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, it could mean a candidate has a slight edge.
Democrats lead narrowly across all of early voting, but they have faltered in the battleground states. Republicans lead Democrats in Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, while Democrats lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Michigan is a tie.
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The Trump campaign has been encouraged by what it has seen in early voting, citing that urban turnout, typically Democratic, is down in many swing states, according to a recent memo.
Democrats have countered that the higher-propensity Republican voters have already turned out in the early vote when they otherwise would’ve voted on Election Day, which is historically a much redder voting day.