As recently as 2023, the billionaire entrepreneur indicated it was time for someone fresh: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).

Fast forward to fall 2024, however, and Musk has fallen hard for MAGA. He campaigns enthusiastically onstage with Trump, has spent millions of dollars of his own money through his new super PAC boosting Trump’s ground game, and has possibly put himself in a position to reap the rewards with an active role in the next government — but that only happens if Trump wins a second term.

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While it’s never been unusual for moguls and tycoons to insert themselves into election campaigns, Musk’s very direct style could leave him more exposed than others should Vice President Kamala Harris prevail.

Evolution of a Trump super booster

Musk’s evolution into an enthusiastic cheerleader for Trump has been rapid. In May 2023, he said it was time for “someone fairly normal” to run for president, just as he was about to host an interview with DeSantis on X in which the Florida governor launched his unsuccessful campaign. Musk said he voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.

The feeling was somewhat mutual. In July 2022, Trump called Musk a “bulls*** artist” at an event in Alaska, alleging the Tesla CEO had told him he voted for him. Musk, in response, said Trump would be “too old to be chief executive of anything, let alone the United States of America” by the end of his term, and said, “It’s time for Trump to hang up his hat and sail into the sunset.” 

Fast-forward to this summer, and Musk, enraged by the July 8 assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, and moved by Trump’s defiant response, endorsed the former president.

Since then, Musk has poured more than $118 million of his own cash into the pro-Trump super PAC he created earlier this year, called America PAC. It has already spent more than $160 million in supporting Republicans and opposing Democrats, and a little under half of that was spent on boosting Trump specifically, according to OpenSecrets.

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Separately, Musk’s ownership of X has been invaluable when it comes to both him and his platform boosting Trump and denigrating Harris. Musk, whose reach on X is unrivaled, has more than 200 million followers, the most of anyone on the platform, while former President Barack Obama, a top Harris campaign surrogate, is second with about 131.8 million followers.

The billionaire’s ownership of X has been a boon for Republicans who accused the previous owner and senior leaders of censoring Republican voices, though Musk has also voiced unproven allegations related to election security, which election officials have derided.

Regardless of who wins the election, X has taken a hit since Musk bought the platform two years ago. In October 2022, 72 out of its top 100 spending U.S. advertisers no longer did two years later, Abe Yousef, a senior analyst with the market intelligence firm Sensor Tower, told the Washington Examiner. Yousef also said the number of worldwide mobile app daily active users was down 27% last month compared to two years prior. X did announce last month that it had agreed to a deal with Unilever to continue their partnership, which the platform said “is the first part of the ecosystem-wide solution, and we look forward to more resolution across the industry.”

Since Musk appeared at Trump’s return to Butler rally, his PAC has begun offering monetary rewards, a million dollars a piece, to lucky winners who are registered to vote in battleground states.

The giveaways have drawn the ire of the Department of Justice, which warned Musk that they could violate federal laws against paying voters. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner’s office filed a lawsuit arguing the payouts are an illegal, unregulated lottery.

Musk pushed for the case to be moved to federal court ahead of a Thursday hearing, delaying a possible ruling against him likely until after the election, USA Today reported, citing an official in the Philadelphia Office of Judicial Records.

A role in the next Trump administration

In September, Trump floated the idea of tapping Musk to lead a “government efficiency commission,” which would attempt to cut wasteful spending and regulations in Washington. Musk said in late October that he would find “at least $2 trillion in cuts” as a part of such a review.

Several advisers to Trump have discussed a plan that would call for bypassing the FBI’s usual role in conducting background checks for White House hires and giving them security clearances, according to the New York Times. If Trump were to win and adopt the proposal, it would allow him to quickly install loyalists without subjecting them to possibly long-running FBI background checks.

While Musk has discussed having security clearance due to his businesses’ government contracts, working in the White House could require a deeper investigation into his background. He also smoked marijuana on Joe Rogan’s podcast in 2019 and has discussed his prior drug use, which could pose a challenge for him.

Dan Meyer, a national security partner at Tully Rinckey, described the background check a possible White House hire undergoes as “much different than the standard government background investigation” and called it “a very uncomfortable process.” 

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Foreign contacts and government contracts

Musk’s businesses have dozens of federal contracts with 17 U.S. federal agencies, and he reportedly maintains a relationship with at least one foreign leader, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In late October, the Wall Street Journal reported that Musk had been in regular communication with Putin since late 2022. SpaceX denied some aspects of the outlet’s reporting, though not that Musk had been in contact with the Russian leader.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said, “If the story’s true, that there have been multiple conversations between Elon Musk and the president of Russia, then I think that would be concerning, particularly for NASA, the Department of Defense, for some of the intelligence agencies.”

It’s unclear if Musk disclosed his conversations with the Russian leader to U.S. authorities, though multiple national security-focused lawyers highlighted the commonality of businessmen engaging foreign leaders in attempts to win overseas business deals.

A spokesperson for NASA told the Washington Examiner that its “contracts are with companies, and not with specific individuals,” in reference to questions about Musk’s purported conversations with Putin.

“NASA is working with partners like SpaceX to build an economy in low Earth orbit and take our next giant leaps in exploration at the Moon and Mars for the benefit of all,” the spokesperson continued. “To date, NASA invested more than $15 billion in SpaceX for its work under numerous agency contracts, including commercial resupply and crew transportation services to and from the International Space Station, science launch services, development of a human landing system to support of our crewed return to the Moon under the Artemis campaign, and more.”

Musk’s SpaceX owns and operates Starlink, which provides internet access to more than 100 countries and territories and has been vital for Ukraine as it fends off Russia’s invasion.

At the beginning of the war, Musk donated several hundred Starlink terminals to Ukraine, allowing internet access to broad swaths of the country facing devastating Russian attacks. SpaceX has since put some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of them in offensive operations.

“Starlink’s contributions to the Ukrainian defense and the Ukrainian people are indisputable. Starlink has kept Ukrainians online and connected to the world throughout the conflict and Starlink has defended itself against major efforts to disrupt that connection, at great cost to the company,” SpaceX said on X.

A Pentagon spokesperson told the Washington Examiner it does not comment on the status of an individual’s security clearance “in the context of reports about any individual’s actions.”

The top Democrats on the House Armed Services and the House Foreign Affairs committees have said the allegations raise questions. Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), the ranking member of the HASC, called for an investigation, while Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), the top Democrat on the HFAC, didn’t do so explicitly.

“The U.S. has critical dependencies on Starlink and SpaceX that are unlikely to go away under a new administration, regardless of who is elected,” Alex Plitsas, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, told the Washington Examiner.

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Taking a toll on Tesla

An interesting aspect of how Harris and Trump’s hypothetical administrations would handle laws that affect areas of overlap with Musk’s interests is that the vice president would likely continue Biden’s push for environmental regulations that are in Tesla’s interests, while Trump has said he’d target those laws for repeal.

Trump has said he would rescind the so-called electric vehicle mandate, a reference to the Environmental Protection Agency’s clean car emissions standards, and other regulations and incentives meant for environmental protection. However, he also softened his stance in August, saying, “I’m for electric cars. I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly.”

Musk has already faced challenges with the state of California with SpaceX, though Tesla supports some of the state’s environmental policy mandates, which are the most progressive in the country.

The California Coastal Commission denied SpaceX more rocket launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base, which officials have said was partly due to Musk’s recent political activities. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), a fierce critic of the former president, sided with Musk and said, “These are good commissioners. But you got to call balls and strikes. And trust me, I’m not big on the Elon Musk bandwagon right now. So that’s me calling balls and strikes.”

Fearing a second Trump administration, California’s state legislature has tried to come to broad settlements with industries that generate greenhouse gases that would be beyond the federal government’s reach. During Trump’s first administration, California was involved in nearly 100 lawsuits against the government, according to a tracker developed by a Marquette University political scientist.

A possible Harris administration would likely enact or maintain environmental policies and regulations that would benefit Tesla and other electric vehicle companies.

Will a Harris win matter to Musk (and his companies?)

Musk is not the first billionaire to back a presidential candidate, and he won’t be the last, even though billionaires are usually more muted in their support, allowing their wallets to do the talking. Many of them also have overseas business dealings as well.

“Other CEOs are donating and campaigning for both candidates too — that’s our political system. Additionally, CEOs of large and influential companies regularly meet with or speak to foreign leaders,” Plitsas said. “There is nothing at this time to suggest that any of those conversations or interactions were inappropriate or pose a security risk.”

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Should Harris prevail, Musk is banking on the government’s already baked-in reliance on his businesses, according to Bradley Moss, a national security attorney.

“If Harris wins, Elon is betting on the fact that the U.S. Government needs his satellite and space products enough that they simply cannot justify cutting him off from existing contracts,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Elon is well aware of the enormous leverage he holds over the national security apparatus with respect to SpaceX and Starlink, and he is gambling that the importance of those companies and products puts him at a level that effectively immunizes him from standard scrutiny.”