Former President Donald Trump’s path to electoral victory against Vice President Kamala Harris is increasingly narrow, but it may be determined by which candidate is able to win Pennsylvania, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Pennsylvania carries the most weight across all seven battleground states with 19 electoral votes and with 12 of the 15 past presidents securing their victories with help from the state. Trump and Harris are now neck and neck in Pennsylvania, and which candidate voters feel will best handle the economy could be the deciding factor for who wins the state, experts told the DCNF. (RELATED: Trump Hammered Voters’ Key Concerns In RNC Speech, Harris Hardly Mentioned Them)
“I think whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “Yeah, there are other ways to put all the pieces together. But the math winds up being fairly hard for Trump if he doesn’t pull off Pennsylvania.”
JOHNSTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA – SEPTEMBER 13: Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris takes a selfie with Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) and his wife Gisele Barreto Fetterman (R) after greeting supporters at John Murtha Johnstown-Cambria Airport on September 13, 2024, in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
“In the simplest terms, it’s the largest swing state,” McHenry told the DCNF. “To replace those 19 electoral votes, you’ve got to put together North Carolina and Nevada or Georgia and Wisconsin. There are other ways to replace it, but it’s a closely divided state. I’d be surprised if someone wins it by more than two points one way or the other.”
“Harris is leading in national polls, but is very close in certain state polls,” Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF. “It’s those state polls that will be important in this election. And I think Pennsylvania is one of those.”
Harris has held onto a slim lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, with several polls showing the two in a dead heat, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages. Harris and Trump are also tied at 49% in the Keystone state according to a Marist poll from Thursday, and at 48% according to a Washington Post poll from the same day. (RELATED: ‘Egregious’: Swing State Dems May Be Illegally Recruiting Out-Of-State Poll Watchers, GOP Letter Warns)
Both candidates have dedicated a lot of time and resources to the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In 2016, Trump swept all three states and secured his first presidential term, but went on to lose in all of the blue wall states in 2020.
“I think Pennsylvania is bothering people, because the paths to victory are very precarious, meaning you have to do everything just right,” Chand told the DCNF. “It’s like, how do you nail the combination? And Pennsylvania, shall we say, is a really sensitive spot.”
“Pennsylvania is a true, legitimate swing state,” Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told the DCNF. “In terms of its presidential voting history, the breakdown of its state legislature and the philosophical disposition of its voters, it is truly a state with a middle temperament. And I believe that this presidential election will be won in the middle.”
The “middle” Foxwell describes requires the presidential hopefuls to balance support from the Democratic voters in Philadelphia with voters in the rural parts of the state. (RELATED: ‘Less Vibes, More Policy’: Here’s Why Harris Is Polling Worse Than Past Democratic Candidates)
“You’ve got this huge Democratic city and county of Philadelphia, which is almost enough to offset all the rural and small town voters perfectly,” McHenry told the DCNF. “Philly is sort of one center of gravity and then the rest of the state offsets it.”
“I think this race is going to be won in the demographic middle,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “It’s largely going to be won in the suburbs, and it’s largely going to be won on the issue of the economy.”
Currently, Pennsylvania’s Gov. Josh Shapiro, who Harris passed over when selecting a running mate, and two senators, Bob Casey and John Fetterman, are all Democrats. However, Republican challenger David McCormick has polled within striking distance of Casey, with the two candidates tied according to the latest poll from The Washington Post. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: Dave McCormick Unveiling Plan To Move Key Federal Agency Far Away From DC Beltway)
One of the primary economic industries in Pennsylvania is oil and fracking, an industry Harris has historically been against.
During her first presidential campaign in 2020, Harris said there was “no question” that she would end fracking if she became president. However, during the Sept. 10 debate, Harris reversed her position and insisted that she “will not ban fracking.”
“If Pennsylvania voters actually go and do their research, they’re going to find that Vice President Harris doesn’t support fracking,” McHenry told the DCNF. “Yeah, she probably lied to the nation in that moment. Either she had a presidential race version of a deathbed confession, or she lied.”
“Pennsylvania serves as a harbinger,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “I think because of the size, the electoral prominence and the demographics that are represented within that voter base, I think it’s absolutely the pivotal battleground heading into these final weeks.”
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