During a Sept. 13 campaign rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, former President Donald Trump claimed 21 million people have been let into the U.S. under incumbent President Joe Biden’s administration.

Verdict: Misleading

Two experts suggested that Trump’s claim is incorrect, while a third said the number was “credible.” Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) shows a total of 10,680,981 nationwide encounters have occurred under the Biden-Harris administration from FY 2021 to FY 2024 to date.

Fact Check:

A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll placed Trump ahead of 2024 Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris at 47% to 43% “within the margin of error,” according to CNN. The poll comes as Harris denounced the former president’s claims regarding Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, calling his remarks a “crying shame,” NPR reported.

Trump claimed during his Sept. 13 rally in Las Vegas that 21 million people have been let into the U.S. under the Biden-Harris administration. “Of course I’m angry. We got 21 million people that came into our country invading our communities, invading our cities and towns, and destroying our country,” Trump said, referencing Harris’ comments that he was angry during their September 10 ABC News debate. Trump repeated the same statistic later on in the rally.

The claim is misleading. According to to CBP’s Nationwide Encounter data, a total of 1,956,519 nationwide encounters occurred during FY 2021. Similarly, the same data shows a total of 2,766,582 nationwide encounters occurred during FY 2022, while a total of 3,201,144 nationwide encounters occurred during FY 2023. A total of 2,756,646 encounters have occurred during FY 2024 to date. The CBP website indicates nationwide encounter data includes Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissibles, and Title 42 Expulsions for FY 2020 to FY 2023. Demographics included in the data represent accompanied minors, individuals in a family unit, single adults, and unaccompanied children/single minors.

Check Your Fact added the total number of nationwide encounters representing FY 2021 to FY 2024 to date and arrived at 10,680,891. Back in May 2024, the Republican-led House Committee on Homeland Security issued a press release stating the Biden-Harris administration was “on track” to reach 10 million nationwide encounters “well before the end of the fiscal year” on September 30. (RELATED: Media Outlets Claim Trump Falsely Accused Harris Of Wanting ‘Transgender Operations’ On Imprisoned ‘Illegal Aliens’)

Likewise, according to Poynter, the number of illegal encounters that have occurred during the Biden-Harris administration at the U.S. border is around 10 million, but the number increases to 11.6 million when accounting for “got-aways.” Citing data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Poynter indicated that “around 3.8 million people have been released into the U.S. to await immigration court hearings.”

In addition to Poynter, CBS News also fact-checked Trump’s claim, reporting CBP “has recorded over 8 million encounters with migrants at the southern border since Mr. Biden took office in 2021.” Furthermore, the outlet noted that an estimated over 1.7 million migrants have “evaded apprehension since the start of fiscal year 2021,” while another 4 million have either been “turned away or deported” since the same time period.

Despite these variations in numbers, an August 2024 update from CBP indicates “encounters between ports of entry have decreased by more than 50%” following announcement of the Presidential Proclamation and complementary Interim Final Rule (IFR) on June 4. From June 5 to September 10, DHS “has removed or returned more than 131,000 individuals to more than 140 countries, including operating more than 400 international repatriation flights,” according to the same update.

Multiple experts shared their perspectives on the claim with Check Your Fact.

David J. Bier, director of Immigration Studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, said the immigration population “has increased 3 million from 2020 to 2023,” according to Census Bureau data.

“The Census Bureau survey shows that the immigrant population has increased 3 million from 2020 to 2023 and 2024 immigration has been lower,” Bier said. Bier also directed Check Your Fact to a September 13 blog post he authored for the Cato Institute that indicated that while the immigrant population increased 3 million from 2020 to 2023, this number is “1 million lower” than the Census Bureau’s 2017 projection.

Figure 1 included in the blog post tracks the total immigrant population from 2000 to 2023 as about 47.8 million compared to the Census Bureau’s 2017 projection of 48.8 million. The data includes illegal immigrants, according to the blog post.

Douglas Ligor, director of the Management, Technology, and Capabilities Program at the nonpartisan RAND Corporation’s Homeland Security Research Division, said he is not aware of any “valid, scientific analysis” to support the number Trump referenced during his September 13 campaign rally.

“I know of no valid, scientific analysis to support the 21 million number.  The most recent research puts the estimated number of those unlawfully present at approximately 11 million to 12.8 million,” Ligor said, citing data from DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics (OHSS), the PEW Research Center, and the Center for Immigration Studies. “The estimated number has not changed dramatically since about 2005 as there are both inflows to and outflows from the U.S. over time,” Ligor explained.

“Since 2021, the immigration court backlog has increased from approximately 1.4 million to 3.7 million, which means there are just under 2.3 million new cases. The majority of those are cases resulting from encounters at the southern border. However, the fact that these individuals are in immigration court means that they have been lawfully paroled into the U.S. in order to have their case (to obtain lawful status) heard before an immigration judge,” he added.

Michelle Mittelstadt, director of Communications at the liberal-leaning Migration Policy Institute, said the number isn’t “anywhere near 21 million people.”

“Even if every single person encountered crossing a U.S. border without authorization was allowed into the country – which is far from the case – there would not be anywhere near 21 million people,” Mittlestadt said.

“Between January 2021 and August 2024, there were 10.4 million encounters at all U.S. borders, covering both people crossing borders without authorization or arriving at a port of entry without prior permission to enter. That 10.4 million does not translate into 10.4 million people entering the country because encounters represent events, not individuals, and there is always a degree of recidivism (people encountered by CBP and turned back crossing the border again and being re-encountered). During the Title 42 expulsions policy in place between March 2020 and May 2023, recidivism soared. In FY 2021, 27% of encounters involved recidivists.”

“Significant shares of encounters result in departures from the U.S. either through formal removal or return. And significant numbers are also put into immigration detention. In August, for example, more than 50% of border encounters were placed in expedited removal.”

“Even if you add gotaways, the numbers of people entering the U.S. without authorization during the Biden administration would be a fraction of the 21 million cited by Mr. Trump,” she explained.

Simon Hankinson, senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Border Security and Immigration Center, said Trump’s estimate was “credible” based on studies conducted by the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) and Yale University.

“Estimates of the number of people here in the U.S. illegally are just that – estimates. The number 12 million has floated around for over a decade and is surely too low. There are between 16.8 million and 29 million aliens illegally present in the US according to FAIR and Yale studies.”

“About 10.5 million inadmissible aliens have been encountered (meaning technically arrested, but usually released soon after) by DHS at our borders since Biden took office. We don’t know the exact number released into the U.S. with Notices to Appear in immigration court, a process which would lead to their removal unless they successfully claimed asylum or other protection. In December 2023, Secretary Mayorkas said they released over 85% of those encountered that month. At that level, we’d be looking at more than 8 million released since January 2021,” Hankinson said.

“Another 2 million or more (Mayorkas admitted to 600,000 per year) aliens entered the U.S. illegally without inspection (EWI) by any U.S. officials. These ‘gotaways’ often sneak in because they have criminal records, warrants, contraband, or other things to hide.”

“Biden has used immigration parole on a scale, and by standards, unimaginable in previous times. His dubious, likely ultra vires programs have brought in maybe 1.5 million more inadmissible aliens who have quasi-legal status, for two years, which can be revoked at any time by a successor president. Biden’s parole programs are bringing in at least 70,000 inadmissible aliens per month using this workaround.”

“[The] Bottom line [is] Former President Trump chose an estimate in between the FAIR and Yale studies. That there are 21 million aliens with no legal status, or on parole, or fighting deportation, is a credible estimate. There is no doubt that under President Biden, the entry of inadmissible aliens (meaning those who would never qualify for a visa to come here legally if they applied) has been historically high, month after month,” he added.

Check Your Fact has also contacted Trump and Harris spokespersons and CBP for comment.